3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,552 sqft ·
Built 2019
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 713 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,479/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$839
Tax + insurance
−$278
HOA
−$13
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$311
Net cashflow
$39/mo
Annual
$464/yr
Cap rate
6.58%
Cash-on-cash
1.04%
DSCR
1.05
1% rule
0.92%
Cash to close
$44,797
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $160k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $39 ($464/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $148k (7.6% below list).
It's been on market 713 days — a 12% lower offer ($141k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $141k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
In year one you build about $4k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $3k appreciation (1.9% local appreciation)).
Location reads 58/100 on livability (#1,196 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime D-, amenities F.
Fairfield ISD (town): math 33% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #475 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Market conditions: 102 active listings in the ZIP; 2 units permitted in Freestone County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Freestone County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
2 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $45k (22%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
At projected returns (1.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $45k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 68% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 713 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
CashFlowRE · CFR-8BATXK6C68KERS
· Data 3 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29