75326 38th Ave

Paw Paw Lake, MI 49043

$179,900D

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,918 sqft · Built 1930 · SingleFamily · Pending · 29 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,268/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$943
• Tax + insurance: −$145
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$266
• Net cashflow: $-86/mo
• Annual: $-1,036/yr
• Cap rate: 5.72%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.06%
• DSCR: 0.91
• 1% rule: 0.70%
• Cash to close: $50,372

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $180k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-86 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $165k (8.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $127k (29.5% below list).
• It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($177k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $127k (29.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $14k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $12k appreciation (6.8% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#420 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Covert Public Schools (rural): math 15% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #630 of 760 in MI (top 83%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 91% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Covert Elementary School (math 2% / reading 27%, grade F, #1,172 of 1,397 statewide, top 85%, 140 students, 90% FRL); Covert Middle School (math 12% / reading 27%, grade F, #425 of 493 statewide, top 87%, 65 students, 92% FRL); Covert High School (math 10% / reading 30%, grade F, #596 of 713 statewide, top 86%, 103 students, 82% FRL) — zoned schools at 88% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 26 active listings in the ZIP; 165 units permitted in Van Buren County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Van Buren County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.