75326 38th Ave · Paw Paw Lake, MI 49043

$179,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,918 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 29 Days on market

Built 1930 8.19 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.7/30.0
• Appreciation +8.4/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• DSCR +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• 1% rule +2.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Opportunity knocks in Covert! This 4-bedroom, 2-bath home sits on just over 8 wooded acres and is ready for a new owner to bring it back to life. With solid bones and plenty of space, this property offers endless potential for the right buyer willing to put in some work. The home features a full basement with a newer furnace and water heater already in place. A rare find, the attached 4-car garage provides ample room for vehicles, storage, or a workshop. The wooded acreage is ideal for hunting, ATV riding, and enjoying the outdoors right in your backyard. Conveniently located just minutes from I-96, about 5 minutes to Lake Michigan access points, and only 10 minutes from downtown South Haven. A great investment, weekend retreat, or future homestead bring your vision and make it your own.

Key facts

• Lake michigan access
• Newer furnace
• Attached garage

Tags

• WOODED ACRES
• FULL BASEMENT
• NEWER FURNACE
• NEWER WATER HEATER
• ATTACHED GARAGE
• LAKE MICHIGAN ACCESS

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Propane for water heating
• Home design: Traditional style; Single-family residence
• Construction: Built in 1930; Other construction materials; Composition/Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Wooded lot; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Oven; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Bedroom 4 (approx. 13 x 10)
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom; Additional bathroom measurements listed (multiple bathrooms)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating
• Interior features: Wood burning fireplace; Storm windows; Michigan-style basement; Total of 9 rooms
• Laundry & utility: Propane water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $180k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-86 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $165k (8.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $127k (29.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $127k (29.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#420 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Covert Public Schools (rural): math 15% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #630 of 760 in MI (top 83%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 91% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Covert Elementary School (math 2% / reading 27%, grade F, #1,172 of 1,397 statewide, top 85%, 140 students, 90% FRL); Covert Middle School (math 12% / reading 27%, grade F, #425 of 493 statewide, top 87%, 65 students, 92% FRL); Covert High School (math 10% / reading 30%, grade F, #596 of 713 statewide, top 86%, 103 students, 82% FRL) — zoned schools at 88% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 26 active listings in the ZIP; 165 units permitted in Van Buren County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $14k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $12k appreciation (6.8% local appreciation)).
• Van Buren County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($177k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $126,806 (29.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.70% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.72%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.06%
• DSCR: 0.91
• GRM: 11.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

6.83% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.10×
• Total profit: $55,331
• Equity at exit: $122,628

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.5%
• Equity multiple: 4.28×
• Total profit: $165,001
• Equity at exit: $231,115

Cash invested: $50,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 49043

• Home prices YoY: 3.7%
• Active inventory: 26
• Price-to-rent: 11.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,268 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$943
• Tax from tax record: −$70 /mo · $836/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$266
• Net cashflow: $-86

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,377

Max offer price $164,653

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $16	-5% $-35	+0% $-86	+5% $-137	+10% $-188
Rent	-10% $-186	-5% $-136	+0% $-86	+5% $-36	+10% $14
Rate	-1.0pp $4	-0.5pp $-41	base $-86	+0.5pp $-133	+1.0pp $-180

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,975
• Closing costs: $5,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-05-01
   historical Active Under Contract 798-char remark

   Show marketing remark (798 chars)

   Opportunity knocks in Covert! This 4-bedroom, 2-bath home sits on just over 8 wooded acres and is ready for a new owner to bring it back to life. With solid bones and plenty of space, this property offers endless potential for the right buyer willing to put in some work. The home features a full basement with a newer furnace and water heater already in place. A rare find, the attached 4-car garage provides ample room for vehicles, storage, or a workshop. The wooded acreage is ideal for hunting, ATV riding, and enjoying the outdoors right in your backyard. Conveniently located just minutes from I-96, about 5 minutes to Lake Michigan access points, and only 10 minutes from downtown South Haven. A great investment, weekend retreat, or future homestead bring your vision and make it your own.

2. 2026-05-01
   historical Accepting Backup Offers 798-char remark

   Show marketing remark (798 chars)

   Opportunity knocks in Covert! This 4-bedroom, 2-bath home sits on just over 8 wooded acres and is ready for a new owner to bring it back to life. With solid bones and plenty of space, this property offers endless potential for the right buyer willing to put in some work. The home features a full basement with a newer furnace and water heater already in place. A rare find, the attached 4-car garage provides ample room for vehicles, storage, or a workshop. The wooded acreage is ideal for hunting, ATV riding, and enjoying the outdoors right in your backyard. Conveniently located just minutes from I-96, about 5 minutes to Lake Michigan access points, and only 10 minutes from downtown South Haven. A great investment, weekend retreat, or future homestead bring your vision and make it your own.

3. 2026-05-01
   historical Active - Backup Offers Accepted

   Show marketing remark (798 chars)

   Opportunity knocks in Covert! This 4-bedroom, 2-bath home sits on just over 8 wooded acres and is ready for a new owner to bring it back to life. With solid bones and plenty of space, this property offers endless potential for the right buyer willing to put in some work. The home features a full basement with a newer furnace and water heater already in place. A rare find, the attached 4-car garage provides ample room for vehicles, storage, or a workshop. The wooded acreage is ideal for hunting, ATV riding, and enjoying the outdoors right in your backyard. Conveniently located just minutes from I-96, about 5 minutes to Lake Michigan access points, and only 10 minutes from downtown South Haven. A great investment, weekend retreat, or future homestead bring your vision and make it your own.

4. 2026-04-28
   listed $179,900 Active 798-char remark

   Show marketing remark (798 chars)

   Opportunity knocks in Covert! This 4-bedroom, 2-bath home sits on just over 8 wooded acres and is ready for a new owner to bring it back to life. With solid bones and plenty of space, this property offers endless potential for the right buyer willing to put in some work. The home features a full basement with a newer furnace and water heater already in place. A rare find, the attached 4-car garage provides ample room for vehicles, storage, or a workshop. The wooded acreage is ideal for hunting, ATV riding, and enjoying the outdoors right in your backyard. Conveniently located just minutes from I-96, about 5 minutes to Lake Michigan access points, and only 10 minutes from downtown South Haven. A great investment, weekend retreat, or future homestead bring your vision and make it your own.

5. 2026-04-28
   listed $179,900 Active 798-char remark

   Show marketing remark (798 chars)

   Opportunity knocks in Covert! This 4-bedroom, 2-bath home sits on just over 8 wooded acres and is ready for a new owner to bring it back to life. With solid bones and plenty of space, this property offers endless potential for the right buyer willing to put in some work. The home features a full basement with a newer furnace and water heater already in place. A rare find, the attached 4-car garage provides ample room for vehicles, storage, or a workshop. The wooded acreage is ideal for hunting, ATV riding, and enjoying the outdoors right in your backyard. Conveniently located just minutes from I-96, about 5 minutes to Lake Michigan access points, and only 10 minutes from downtown South Haven. A great investment, weekend retreat, or future homestead bring your vision and make it your own.

6. 2026-04-28
   listed $179,900 Active

   Show marketing remark (798 chars)

   Opportunity knocks in Covert! This 4-bedroom, 2-bath home sits on just over 8 wooded acres and is ready for a new owner to bring it back to life. With solid bones and plenty of space, this property offers endless potential for the right buyer willing to put in some work. The home features a full basement with a newer furnace and water heater already in place. A rare find, the attached 4-car garage provides ample room for vehicles, storage, or a workshop. The wooded acreage is ideal for hunting, ATV riding, and enjoying the outdoors right in your backyard. Conveniently located just minutes from I-96, about 5 minutes to Lake Michigan access points, and only 10 minutes from downtown South Haven. A great investment, weekend retreat, or future homestead bring your vision and make it your own.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $836 · $70/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,803 · $150/mo
• Expected delta: +$967/yr (+$81/mo · 115.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 21% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,217
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,077
• − Property taxes: −$836
• − Insurance: −$900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,217
• − Management: −$1,217
• − Depreciation: −$5,233
• Taxable loss: −$4,265
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,023
• After-tax cash flow: $-12/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Covert Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2610980
• Math proficiency: 15% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $29,349
• Composite: 21.13/100
• National rank: #13687
• State rank: #630 of 760 in MI

Livability — Paw Paw Lake

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #420
• US rank: #11496

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,264

Population outlook (Van Buren County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 71,479 people
• By 2030: 68,693 · -3.9%
• By 2040: 62,093 · -13.1%
• By 2050: 55,232 · -22.7%
• By 2075: 40,786 · -42.9%
• By 2100: 27,785 · -61.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: White 36% Hispanic / Latino 32% Black 27% Two or more races 21%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 28%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada
• Languages at home: 68% English-only · Spanish 29% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Van Buren

• 2024 margin: R (+15.1) · D 41.7% · R 56.9% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -23.9pp toward R · 2008: 8.8pp · 2024: -15.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+15.1 2020: R+12.3 2016: R+13.9 2012: D+0.5 2008: D+8.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.83%
• Current HPI: 192.9859
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Contingent — REALCOMP
• 2026-05-01 Contingent — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-01 Contingent — SW Michigan MLS
• 2026-04-28 Listed $179,900 SW Michigan MLS
• 2026-04-28 Listed $179,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-04-28 Listed $179,900 REALCOMP

Property tax history

-2.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $836 · -38.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.