5931 Five Forks Rd Rd

Hampden-Sydney, VA 23958

$279,900D-

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,572 sqft · Built 2014 · SingleFamily · Active · 125 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,324/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,468
• Tax + insurance: −$205
• HOA: −$17
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$278
• Net cashflow: $-644/mo
• Annual: $-7,725/yr
• Cap rate: 3.53%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.86%
• DSCR: 0.56
• 1% rule: 0.47%
• Cash to close: $78,372

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $280k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-644 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $166k (40.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $132k (52.7% below list).
• It's been on market 125 days — a 12% lower offer ($246k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $132k (52.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $20k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $18k appreciation (6.4% local appreciation)).
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Prince Edward County Public School District (town): math 25% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #126 of 131 in VA (top 96%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 65% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 42 active listings in the ZIP; 65 units permitted in Prince Edward County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Prince Edward County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $237k; 18% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 3.5% vs local median 2.2% in Hampden-Sydney — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 125 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 53% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.