5931 Five Forks Rd Rd · Hampden-Sydney, VA 23958

$279,900

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,572 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 125 Days on market

Built 2014 3.25 ac lot $178/sqft · 22% below area Est $370k · 24% under $17/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +8.2/10.0
• Cash flow +5.1/30.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to peaceful country living at 5931 Five Forks Rd in Pamplin, VA. This charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath ranch-style home, built in 2014, sits on 3.25 scenic acres and offers 1,616 sq ft of comfortable single-level living. Inside, you'll find a spacious living area, a well-equipped kitchen with ample cabinetry, and a private primary suite. Enjoy relaxing on the front porch while taking in the quiet countryside. The property also offers access to community amenities, including tennis courts and lake access, perfect for outdoor recreation and leisure. Conveniently located within a short drive to Farmville and Appomattox, this home combines the tranquility of rural living with access to local conveniences.

Key facts

• Outdoor space
• 3.25 acre lot
• Built 2014

Tags

• OUTDOOR SPACE
• WELL-EQUIPPED KITCHEN
• TRANQUIL NEIGHBORHOOD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $280k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-644 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $166k (40.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $132k (52.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $132k (52.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 3.5% vs local median 2.2% in Hampden-Sydney — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Prince Edward County Public School District (town): math 25% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #126 of 131 in VA (top 96%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 65% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 42 active listings in the ZIP; 65 units permitted in Prince Edward County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $20k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $18k appreciation (6.4% local appreciation)).
• Prince Edward County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 125 days — a 12% lower offer ($246k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $237k; 18% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $132,383 (52.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 125 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 53% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.47% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.53%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.86%
• DSCR: 0.56
• GRM: 17.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $369,900
• List price: $279,900
• Delta: -24.33%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
144 Lake Pointe Ct	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,600 (+2%)	2mo	$369,900	$231	79
62 E Lockett Creek Blvd	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,618 (+3%)	14mo	$305,000	$189	78

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

6.44% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 8.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.60×
• Total profit: $47,082
• Equity at exit: $183,829

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.15×
• Total profit: $168,573
• Equity at exit: $340,381

Cash invested: $78,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23958

• Home prices YoY: 3.8%
• Active inventory: 42
• Price-to-rent: 17.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,324 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,468
• Tax from tax record: −$88 /mo · $1,058/yr
• Insurance: −$117
• HOA: −$17
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$278
• Net cashflow: $-644

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,139

Max offer price $166,177

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-485	-5% $-565	+0% $-644	+5% $-723	+10% $-802
Rent	-10% $-748	-5% $-696	+0% $-644	+5% $-591	+10% $-539
Rate	-1.0pp $-503	-0.5pp $-573	base $-644	+0.5pp $-716	+1.0pp $-790

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $69,975
• Closing costs: $8,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $17 · $204/yr

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $279,900 Active 125 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $279,900 Active 123 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $279,900 Active 122 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $279,900 Active 121 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $279,900 Active 120 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $279,900 Active 119 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $279,900 Active 118 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $279,900 Active 117 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $279,900 Active 114 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $279,900 Active 113 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $279,900 Active 112 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $279,900 Active 111 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $279,900 Active 108 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $279,900 Active 107 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $279,900 Active 106 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $279,900 Active 105 DOM
17. 2026-05-05
    price $289,900 712-char remark

    Show marketing remark (712 chars)

    Welcome to peaceful country living at 5931 Five Forks Rd in Pamplin, VA. This charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath ranch-style home, built in 2014, sits on 3.25 scenic acres and offers 1,616 sq ft of comfortable single-level living. Inside, you'll find a spacious living area, a well-equipped kitchen with ample cabinetry, and a private primary suite. Enjoy relaxing on the front porch while taking in the quiet countryside. The property also offers access to community amenities, including tennis courts and lake access, perfect for outdoor recreation and leisure. Conveniently located within a short drive to Farmville and Appomattox, this home combines the tranquility of rural living with access to local conveniences.

18. 2026-03-07
    price $299,900 712-char remark

    Show marketing remark (712 chars)

    Welcome to peaceful country living at 5931 Five Forks Rd in Pamplin, VA. This charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath ranch-style home, built in 2014, sits on 3.25 scenic acres and offers 1,616 sq ft of comfortable single-level living. Inside, you'll find a spacious living area, a well-equipped kitchen with ample cabinetry, and a private primary suite. Enjoy relaxing on the front porch while taking in the quiet countryside. The property also offers access to community amenities, including tennis courts and lake access, perfect for outdoor recreation and leisure. Conveniently located within a short drive to Farmville and Appomattox, this home combines the tranquility of rural living with access to local conveniences.

19. 2026-02-15
    listed $289,900 Active 712-char remark

    Show marketing remark (712 chars)

    Welcome to peaceful country living at 5931 Five Forks Rd in Pamplin, VA. This charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath ranch-style home, built in 2014, sits on 3.25 scenic acres and offers 1,616 sq ft of comfortable single-level living. Inside, you'll find a spacious living area, a well-equipped kitchen with ample cabinetry, and a private primary suite. Enjoy relaxing on the front porch while taking in the quiet countryside. The property also offers access to community amenities, including tennis courts and lake access, perfect for outdoor recreation and leisure. Conveniently located within a short drive to Farmville and Appomattox, this home combines the tranquility of rural living with access to local conveniences.

20. 2026-01-08
    price $289,900
21. 2025-11-17
    price $299,900
22. 2025-10-13
    price $309,900
23. 2025-10-01
    listed $320,000 Active
24. 2017-12-29
    soldstatus $236,867

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,058 · $88/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,295 · $191/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,238/yr (+$103/mo · 117.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 9% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,886
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,679
• − Property taxes: −$1,058
• − Insurance: −$1,400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,271
• − Management: −$1,271
• − HOA: −$204
• − Depreciation: −$8,143
• Taxable loss: −$13,138
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,153
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,572/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Prince Edward County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5103060
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -37.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $39,482
• Composite: 30.49/100
• National rank: #6221
• State rank: #126 of 131 in VA

Livability — Hampden-Sydney

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• City population: 1,020
• Population (ZIP): 3,127

Population outlook (Prince Edward County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 24,387 people
• By 2030: 24,161 · -0.9%
• By 2040: 23,194 · -4.9%
• By 2050: 22,292 · -8.6%
• By 2075: 20,854 · -14.5%
• By 2100: 19,030 · -22.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Black 27% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Prince Edward

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.2% · R 50.7% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.5pp toward R · 2008: 9.9pp · 2024: -2.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.6 2020: D+5.6 2016: D+5.4 2012: D+12.8 2008: D+9.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.44%
• Current HPI: 174.8655
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+22.4% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Price Changed $289,900 LMLS
• 2026-03-07 Price Changed $299,900 LMLS
• 2026-02-15 Listed $289,900 LMLS
• 2026-01-08 Price Changed $289,900 LMLS
• 2025-11-17 Price Changed $299,900 LMLS
• 2025-10-13 Price Changed $309,900 LMLS
• 2025-10-01 Listed $320,000 LMLS
• 2017-12-29 Sold (Public Records) $236,867 Public Records

Property tax history

+16.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,058 · +6.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.