1171 Providence Loop

Oakman, AL 35579

$75,000C+

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 770 sqft · Built — · Other · Active · 79 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $844/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax + insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$177
• Net cashflow: $149/mo
• Annual: $1,783/yr
• Cap rate: 8.67%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.49%
• DSCR: 1.38
• 1% rule: 1.13%
• Cash to close: $21,000

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $75k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $149 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($844 rent vs $75k).
• It's been on market 79 days — a 6% lower offer ($70k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $70k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($519 loan paydown + $5k appreciation (6.2% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#469 in AL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: health & safety D, crime F, amenities F.
• Walker County (rural): math 13% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #89 of 129 in AL (top 69%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Oakman Middle School (math 4% / reading 37%, grade F, #453 of 627 statewide, top 72%, 648 students, 63% FRL); Oakman High School (math 8% / reading 8%, grade F, #261 of 305 statewide, top 87%, 305 students, 64% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 14% at this address vs 26% district-wide (-12 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Walker County average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 13 active listings in the ZIP; 36 units permitted in Walker County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Walker County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (6.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 79 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.