1171 Providence Loop · Oakman, AL 35579

$75,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 770 sqft · Other · 79 Days on market

1.06 ac lot ↓ 32% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.1/30.0
• Appreciation +8.1/10.0
• DSCR +7.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.3/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This Is A Great Opportunity To Own A Home & Land At An Affordable Price! This Home Is Move-In Ready. Property Includes: New Windows, Plumbing, Water Heater, Roof, Central Heating & Cooling, Flooring, Counter Tops, & Fixtures. Out Building Not Included. Don't miss this Deal!

Key facts

• Central heating
• New plumbing
• Central cooling

Tags

• NEW WINDOWS
• NEW PLUMBING
• NEW WATER HEATER
• NEW ROOF
• CENTRAL HEATING
• CENTRAL COOLING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $75k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $149 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($844 rent vs $75k).
• Recommended offer: $70k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#469 in AL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: health & safety D, crime F, amenities F.
• Walker County (rural): math 13% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #89 of 129 in AL (top 69%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Oakman Middle School (math 4% / reading 37%, grade F, #453 of 627 statewide, top 72%, 648 students, 63% FRL); Oakman High School (math 8% / reading 8%, grade F, #261 of 305 statewide, top 87%, 305 students, 64% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 14% at this address vs 26% district-wide (-12 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Walker County average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 13 active listings in the ZIP; 36 units permitted in Walker County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($519 loan paydown + $5k appreciation (6.2% local appreciation)).
• Walker County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (6.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 79 days — a 6% lower offer ($70k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $70,500 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 79 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.13% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.67%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.49%
• DSCR: 1.38
• GRM: 7.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

6.17% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.52×
• Total profit: $31,887
• Equity at exit: $47,952

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.5%
• Equity multiple: 5.11×
• Total profit: $86,213
• Equity at exit: $87,660

Cash invested: $21,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 35579

• Home prices YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 13
• Price-to-rent: 7.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $844 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$94 /mo · $1,125/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$177
• Net cashflow: $149

Break-even live

Break-even rent $656

Max offer price $75,000

Occupancy floor 77%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $200	-5% $175	+0% $149	+5% $123	+10% $97
Rent	-10% $82	-5% $115	+0% $149	+5% $182	+10% $215
Rate	-1.0pp $186	-0.5pp $168	base $149	+0.5pp $129	+1.0pp $109

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,750
• Closing costs: $2,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $75,000 Active 79 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $75,000 Active 76 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $75,000 Active 75 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $75,000 Active 74 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $75,000 Active 73 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $75,000 Active 71 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $75,000 Active 70 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $75,000 Active 68 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $75,000 Active 67 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $75,000 Active 66 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $75,000 Active 65 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $75,000 Active 62 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $75,000 Active 61 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $75,000 Active 60 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $75,000 Active 59 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $75,000 Active 58 DOM
17. 2026-05-15
    price $75,000 291-char remark

    Show marketing remark (291 chars)

    This Is A Great Opportunity To Own A Home & Land At An Affordable Price! This Home Is Move-In Ready. Property Includes: New Windows, Plumbing, Water Heater, Roof, Central Heating & Cooling, Flooring, Counter Tops, & Fixtures. Out Building Not Included. Don't miss this Deal!

18. 2026-05-05
    price $99,999 291-char remark

    Show marketing remark (291 chars)

    This Is A Great Opportunity To Own A Home & Land At An Affordable Price! This Home Is Move-In Ready. Property Includes: New Windows, Plumbing, Water Heater, Roof, Central Heating & Cooling, Flooring, Counter Tops, & Fixtures. Out Building Not Included. Don't miss this Deal!

19. 2026-04-03
    listed $109,999 Active 291-char remark

    Show marketing remark (291 chars)

    This Is A Great Opportunity To Own A Home & Land At An Affordable Price! This Home Is Move-In Ready. Property Includes: New Windows, Plumbing, Water Heater, Roof, Central Heating & Cooling, Flooring, Counter Tops, & Fixtures. Out Building Not Included. Don't miss this Deal!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,130
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,201
• − Property taxes: −$1,125
• − Insurance: −$375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$810
• − Management: −$810
• − Depreciation: −$2,182
• Taxable income: $626
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$150
• After-tax cash flow: $1,633/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Walker County
• NCES district ID: 0103450
• Math proficiency: 13% ▼ -28.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $36,664
• Composite: 21.51/100
• National rank: #8321
• State rank: #89 of 129 in AL

Livability — Oakman

• Score: 54/100
• State rank: #469
• US rank: #24052

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing B- Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 3,321

Population outlook (Walker County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 61,037 people
• By 2030: 58,391 · -4.3%
• By 2040: 53,080 · -13.0%
• By 2050: 48,031 · -21.3%
• By 2075: 37,799 · -38.1%
• By 2100: 29,001 · -52.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 4% Black 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Walker

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+71.8) · D 13.8% · R 85.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -25.4pp toward R · 2008: -46.4pp · 2024: -71.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+71.8 2020: R+67.9 2016: R+67.4 2012: R+52.9 2008: R+46.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.17%
• Current HPI: 190.4564
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

-31.8% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $75,000 Walker County Area MLS
• 2026-05-05 Price Changed $99,999 Walker County Area MLS
• 2026-04-03 Listed $109,999 Walker County Area MLS

Property tax history

-11.3%/yr

Latest (2024): $27 · -4.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.