4406 Keno Rd

Cana, VA 24352

$179,900D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,296 sqft · Built 2004 · SingleFamily · Pending · 41 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,115/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$943
• Tax + insurance: −$130
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$234
• Net cashflow: $-193/mo
• Annual: $-2,311/yr
• Cap rate: 5.01%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.59%
• DSCR: 0.80
• 1% rule: 0.62%
• Cash to close: $50,372

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $180k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-193 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $146k (18.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $111k (38.0% below list).
• It's been on market 41 days — a 3% lower offer ($175k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $111k (38.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $14k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $13k appreciation (7.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#330 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Carroll County Public School District (rural): math 60% / reading 70% proficiency, ranked #46 of 131 in VA (top 35%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Gladesboro Elementary (math 44% / reading 64%, grade C, #650 of 1,108 statewide, top 62%, 106 students, 85% FRL); Carroll County Middle (math 54% / reading 72%, grade B+, #134 of 342 statewide, top 40%, 756 students, 84% FRL); Carroll County High (math 64% / reading 67%, grade B, #204 of 319 statewide, top 65%, 1,069 students, 81% FRL) — zoned schools average 83% FRL vs 48% district-wide (35 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 40 active listings in the ZIP; 80 units permitted in Carroll County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Carroll County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 3.6% in Cana — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 41 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 38% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.