4406 Keno Rd · Cana, VA 24352

$179,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,296 sqft · SingleFamily · 41 Days on market

Built 2004 1.66 ac lot Est $178k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +8.5/10.0
• Cash flow +7.9/30.0
• ARV discount +6.9/15.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.0/10.0
• 1% rule +1.2/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautifully maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bath double wide situated on approximately 1.66 acres of mostly flat, usable land. This property offers the perfect blend of comfort and functionality, featuring two established garden areas ideal for growing your own produce, along with multiple storage buildings providing ample space for tools, equipment, or hobbies. An additional septic system is already installed and capped, offering future potential. The yard is beautifully landscaped and easy to maintain, making it perfect for outdoor enjoyment. Best of all, this home comes fully furnished—making it truly move-in ready!

Key facts

• Landscaped yard
• Fully furnished
• 1.66 acre lot

Tags

• ESTABLISHED GARDEN AREAS
• MULTIPLE STORAGE BUILDINGS
• ADDITIONAL SEPTIC SYSTEM
• LANDSCAPED YARD
• FULLY FURNISHED

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No homeowners association

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Utilities: Septic tank sewer; Electric water heater
• Home design: Residential modular house; One story
• Construction: Built in 2004; Vinyl siding; One fireplace (living room)
• Exterior features: Approximately 1.66-acre lot; Publicly maintained road access; Well water

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: Primary on main
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump for heating and cooling; Fireplace(s) in living room; Electric heating; Propane heating
• Interior features: Primary bedroom on main level; Crawl space foundation
• Laundry & utility: Main level laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $180k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-193 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $146k (18.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $111k (38.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $111k (38.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 3.6% in Cana — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#330 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Carroll County Public School District (rural): math 60% / reading 70% proficiency, ranked #46 of 131 in VA (top 35%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Gladesboro Elementary (math 44% / reading 64%, grade C, #650 of 1,108 statewide, top 62%, 106 students, 85% FRL); Carroll County Middle (math 54% / reading 72%, grade B+, #134 of 342 statewide, top 40%, 756 students, 84% FRL); Carroll County High (math 64% / reading 67%, grade B, #204 of 319 statewide, top 65%, 1,069 students, 81% FRL) — zoned schools average 83% FRL vs 48% district-wide (35 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 40 active listings in the ZIP; 80 units permitted in Carroll County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $14k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $13k appreciation (7.0% local appreciation)).
• Carroll County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 41 days — a 3% lower offer ($175k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $111,475 (38.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 41 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 38% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.62% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.01%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.59%
• DSCR: 0.80
• GRM: 13.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $177,552
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4406 Keno Rd	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,296 (0%)	0mo	$177,000	$137	100

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

7.04% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.01×
• Total profit: $50,926
• Equity at exit: $125,156

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.3%
• Equity multiple: 4.12×
• Total profit: $156,977
• Equity at exit: $238,184

Cash invested: $50,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 24352

• Home prices YoY: 4.3%
• Active inventory: 40
• Price-to-rent: 13.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,115 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$943
• Tax from tax record: −$55 /mo · $659/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$234
• Net cashflow: $-193

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,359

Max offer price $145,876

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-91	-5% $-142	+0% $-193	+5% $-244	+10% $-294
Rent	-10% $-281	-5% $-237	+0% $-193	+5% $-149	+10% $-105
Rate	-1.0pp $-102	-0.5pp $-147	base $-193	+0.5pp $-239	+1.0pp $-287

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,975
• Closing costs: $5,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-14
   status Pending 624-char remark

   Show marketing remark (624 chars)

   Beautifully maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bath double wide situated on approximately 1.66 acres of mostly flat, usable land. This property offers the perfect blend of comfort and functionality, featuring two established garden areas ideal for growing your own produce, along with multiple storage buildings providing ample space for tools, equipment, or hobbies. An additional septic system is already installed and capped, offering future potential. The yard is beautifully landscaped and easy to maintain, making it perfect for outdoor enjoyment. Best of all, this home comes fully furnished—making it truly move-in ready!

2. 2026-05-14
   status Pending

   Show marketing remark (624 chars)

   Beautifully maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bath double wide situated on approximately 1.66 acres of mostly flat, usable land. This property offers the perfect blend of comfort and functionality, featuring two established garden areas ideal for growing your own produce, along with multiple storage buildings providing ample space for tools, equipment, or hobbies. An additional septic system is already installed and capped, offering future potential. The yard is beautifully landscaped and easy to maintain, making it perfect for outdoor enjoyment. Best of all, this home comes fully furnished—making it truly move-in ready!

3. 2026-04-23
   historical Due Diligence Period
4. 2026-04-03
   listed $179,900 Active 624-char remark

   Show marketing remark (624 chars)

   Beautifully maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bath double wide situated on approximately 1.66 acres of mostly flat, usable land. This property offers the perfect blend of comfort and functionality, featuring two established garden areas ideal for growing your own produce, along with multiple storage buildings providing ample space for tools, equipment, or hobbies. An additional septic system is already installed and capped, offering future potential. The yard is beautifully landscaped and easy to maintain, making it perfect for outdoor enjoyment. Best of all, this home comes fully furnished—making it truly move-in ready!

5. 2026-04-03
   listed $179,900 Active

   Show marketing remark (624 chars)

   Beautifully maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bath double wide situated on approximately 1.66 acres of mostly flat, usable land. This property offers the perfect blend of comfort and functionality, featuring two established garden areas ideal for growing your own produce, along with multiple storage buildings providing ample space for tools, equipment, or hobbies. An additional septic system is already installed and capped, offering future potential. The yard is beautifully landscaped and easy to maintain, making it perfect for outdoor enjoyment. Best of all, this home comes fully furnished—making it truly move-in ready!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $659 · $55/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,475 · $123/mo
• Expected delta: +$817/yr (+$68/mo · 124.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,377
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,077
• − Property taxes: −$659
• − Insurance: −$900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,070
• − Management: −$1,070
• − Depreciation: −$5,233
• Taxable loss: −$5,632
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,352
• After-tax cash flow: $-960/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Carroll County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5100690
• Math proficiency: 60% ▼ -25.00%
• Reading proficiency: 70% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $36,359
• Composite: 53.88/100
• National rank: #1406
• State rank: #46 of 131 in VA

Livability — Cana

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #330
• US rank: #12577

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,321

Population outlook (Carroll County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 28,768 people
• By 2030: 27,909 · -3.0%
• By 2040: 25,788 · -10.4%
• By 2050: 23,522 · -18.2%
• By 2075: 19,045 · -33.8%
• By 2100: 14,801 · -48.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 4% Italian 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Carroll

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+63.3) · D 18.1% · R 81.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -30.9pp toward R · 2008: -32.4pp · 2024: -63.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+63.3 2020: R+62.7 2016: R+59.6 2012: R+39.4 2008: R+32.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 7.04%
• Current HPI: 170.873
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Pending — SWVAR
• 2026-05-14 Pending — Triad MLS
• 2026-04-23 Contingent — Triad MLS
• 2026-04-03 Listed $179,900 Triad MLS
• 2026-04-03 Listed $179,900 SWVAR

Property tax history

+1.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $659 · +28.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.