451 E Birch St

Shelton, WA 98584

$235,000D+

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,048 sqft · Built 1991 · SingleFamily · Pending · 3 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,784/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,232
• Tax + insurance: −$146
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$375
• Net cashflow: $31/mo
• Annual: $377/yr
• Cap rate: 6.45%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.57%
• DSCR: 1.03
• 1% rule: 0.76%
• Cash to close: $65,800

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $235k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $31 ($377/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $178k (24.1% below list).
• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $178k (24.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#203 in WA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, amenities A-; Watch: employment D+, crime F, commute F.
• Shelton School District (town): math 31% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #237 of 291 in WA (top 81%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Evergreen Elementary School (429 students, 86% FRL); Shelton High School (1,473 students, 62% FRL) — zoned schools average 74% FRL vs 59% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 439 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 299 units permitted in Mason County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Mason County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Current owner paid $145k; list at $235k implies a 62% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 3.1% in Shelton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.