14308 Rocky Briar Ln

Pearland, TX 77583

$279,000D

3 bd · 4.0 ba · 2,306 sqft · Built 2003 · SingleFamily · Pending · 19 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,632/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,463
• Tax + insurance: −$726
• HOA: −$56
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$553
• Net cashflow: $-167/mo
• Annual: $-1,999/yr
• Cap rate: 5.58%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.56%
• DSCR: 0.89
• 1% rule: 0.94%
• Cash to close: $78,120

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $279k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-167 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $250k (10.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $263k (5.7% below list).
• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($275k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $250k (10.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#32 in TX, #1,539 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities D-, commute F.
• Alvin ISD (suburban): math 39% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #255 of 826 in TX (top 31%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Savannah Lakes El (math 32% / reading 43%, grade F, #1,744 of 4,322 statewide, top 41%, 809 students, 54% FRL); Alvin H S (math 35% / reading 48%, grade F, #767 of 1,632 statewide, top 47%, 2,821 students, 65% FRL).
• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1151 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 3,960 units permitted in Brazoria County in 2024 (593 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Brazoria County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 5 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 3.0% in Pearland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.