14308 Rocky Briar Ln · Pearland, TX 77583

$279,000

3 bd · 4.0 ba · 2,306 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 19 Days on market

Built 2003 6,769 sqft lot $121/sqft · 7% below area Est $300k · 7% under $56/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +10.6/15.0
• Cash flow +10.0/30.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• DSCR +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful home with 4 sided brick! Entry with Art Niche and tile flooring. Formal Dinning Room with Wood flooring and chair rail, Romantic arch details throughout. Kitchen w/ 42'' cabinets, Stainless Steel appliances! Living has wood floor, gas or wood burning fireplace, 1/2 bath, 3 large windows overlooking backyard. Huge Primary bedroom downstairs! Primary Bath includes His & Her closets. Upstairs partially carpeted, Large game room to have a secondary place to entertain. Upstairs has a full bath with double sinks and nice sized bedrooms. Large fenced backyard, perfect for a family get together! * Rm sizes approx. MAKE YOUR APPOINTMENT TODAY!

Key facts

• 6,769 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2003

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Member of Lakes of Savannah North; Annual association fee of $670

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 2 spaces; Driveway; Garage door opener
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; One- and two-story layout (living areas on first floor, some rooms on second floor)
• Construction: Brick construction; Built in 2003; Composition roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Private yard; Located in a subdivision

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Gas range; Microwave
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (12 x 17); Two secondary bedrooms on the second floor (each 11 x 9)
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; One half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Kitchen/family room combo; Ceiling fans; Gas and wood-burning fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $279k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-167 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $250k (10.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $263k (5.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $250k (10.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 3.0% in Pearland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#32 in TX, #1,539 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities D-, commute F.
• Alvin ISD (suburban): math 39% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #255 of 826 in TX (top 31%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Savannah Lakes El (math 32% / reading 43%, grade F, #1,744 of 4,322 statewide, top 41%, 809 students, 54% FRL); Alvin H S (math 35% / reading 48%, grade F, #767 of 1,632 statewide, top 47%, 2,821 students, 65% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1148 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 3,960 units permitted in Brazoria County in 2024 (593 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Brazoria County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($275k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $249,575 (10.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.58%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.56%
• DSCR: 0.89
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $299,985
• List price: $279,000
• Delta: -7.00%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
14116 Spring Knoll Ln	0.19mi	3/2.5	2,306 (0%)	2mo	$278,000	$121	84
14217 Stone Bluff Ln	0.09mi	3/2.0	2,128 (-8%)	1mo	$265,000	$125	74
14206 Windy Ridge Ln	0.13mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,465 (+7%)	2mo	$298,000	$121	70
5732 Montclair Hill Ln	0.45mi	3/2.5	2,335 (+1%)	2mo	$264,900	$113	69
5627 Briana Dee Dr	0.24mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,185 (-5%)	8mo	$319,990	$146	63
13703 Broad Oaks Ln	0.59mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,354 (+2%)	7mo	$370,000	$157	52
414 Texas Ave	0.68mi	3/2.5	2,165 (-6%)	4mo	$424,900	$196	49
5707 Meadow Breeze Ln	0.63mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,119 (-8%)	2mo	$235,000	$111	49
1619 Dolores St	0.55mi	3/2.0	2,048 (-11%)	1mo	$295,000	$144	47
5716 Meadow Breeze Ln	0.57mi	3/2.0	2,068 (-10%)	5mo	$269,900	$131	44
5607 Lilywood Ct	0.65mi	3/2.5	2,082 (-10%)	5mo	$299,000	$144	43
13616 Barton Meadow Ct	0.67mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,464 (+7%)	7mo	$246,000	$100	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.44% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.20×
• Total profit: $-62,193
• Equity at exit: $41,600

10-year hold

• IRR: -30.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.19×
• Total profit: $-92,630
• Equity at exit: $24,123

Cash invested: $78,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77583

• Rents YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 1148
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,632 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,463
• Tax from tax record: −$610 /mo · $7,322/yr
• Insurance: −$116
• HOA: −$56
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$553
• Net cashflow: $-167

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,842

Max offer price $249,575

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-9	-5% $-88	+0% $-167	+5% $-246	+10% $-325
Rent	-10% $-374	-5% $-271	+0% $-167	+5% $-63	+10% $41
Rate	-1.0pp $-26	-0.5pp $-96	base $-167	+0.5pp $-239	+1.0pp $-312

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $69,750
• Closing costs: $8,370
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
318 Manor Ave Rosharon, TX	3.0	3.0	1924	$2,400	$1.25	45d	1	0.73mi
13104 Spear Trail Ct Rosharon, TX	4.0	2.5	3050	$2,900	$0.95	45d	1	1.25mi
5507 Rio Ramos St Rosharon, TX	4.0	2.5	1968	$2,150	$1.09	45d	1	1.44mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $56 · $672/yr
• Likely covers: gas

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-05-14
   status Pending 610-char remark
2. 2026-05-10
   price $279,000 610-char remark
3. 2026-05-06
   listed $284,000 Active 610-char remark
4. 2026-04-27
   soldstatus
5. 2022-01-10
   soldstatus
6. 2022-01-07
   soldstatus Sold 658-char remark

   Show marketing remark (658 chars)

   Beautiful home with 4 sided brick! Entry with Art Niche and tile flooring. Formal Dinning Room with Wood flooring and chair rail, Romantic arch details throughout. Kitchen w/ 42'' cabinets, Stainless Steel appliances! Living has wood floor, gas or wood burning fireplace, 1/2 bath, 3 large windows overlooking backyard. Huge Primary bedroom downstairs! Primary Bath includes His & Her closets. Upstairs partially carpeted, Large game room to have a secondary place to entertain. Upstairs has a full bath with double sinks and nice sized bedrooms. Large fenced backyard, perfect for a family get together! * Rm sizes approx. MAKE YOUR APPOINTMENT TODAY!

7. 2021-11-20
   status Pending 658-char remark

   Show marketing remark (658 chars)

   Beautiful home with 4 sided brick! Entry with Art Niche and tile flooring. Formal Dinning Room with Wood flooring and chair rail, Romantic arch details throughout. Kitchen w/ 42'' cabinets, Stainless Steel appliances! Living has wood floor, gas or wood burning fireplace, 1/2 bath, 3 large windows overlooking backyard. Huge Primary bedroom downstairs! Primary Bath includes His & Her closets. Upstairs partially carpeted, Large game room to have a secondary place to entertain. Upstairs has a full bath with double sinks and nice sized bedrooms. Large fenced backyard, perfect for a family get together! * Rm sizes approx. MAKE YOUR APPOINTMENT TODAY!

8. 2021-11-12
   status Option Pending 658-char remark

   Show marketing remark (658 chars)

   Beautiful home with 4 sided brick! Entry with Art Niche and tile flooring. Formal Dinning Room with Wood flooring and chair rail, Romantic arch details throughout. Kitchen w/ 42'' cabinets, Stainless Steel appliances! Living has wood floor, gas or wood burning fireplace, 1/2 bath, 3 large windows overlooking backyard. Huge Primary bedroom downstairs! Primary Bath includes His & Her closets. Upstairs partially carpeted, Large game room to have a secondary place to entertain. Upstairs has a full bath with double sinks and nice sized bedrooms. Large fenced backyard, perfect for a family get together! * Rm sizes approx. MAKE YOUR APPOINTMENT TODAY!

9. 2021-11-03
   listed $299,999 Active 658-char remark

   Show marketing remark (658 chars)

   Beautiful home with 4 sided brick! Entry with Art Niche and tile flooring. Formal Dinning Room with Wood flooring and chair rail, Romantic arch details throughout. Kitchen w/ 42'' cabinets, Stainless Steel appliances! Living has wood floor, gas or wood burning fireplace, 1/2 bath, 3 large windows overlooking backyard. Huge Primary bedroom downstairs! Primary Bath includes His & Her closets. Upstairs partially carpeted, Large game room to have a secondary place to entertain. Upstairs has a full bath with double sinks and nice sized bedrooms. Large fenced backyard, perfect for a family get together! * Rm sizes approx. MAKE YOUR APPOINTMENT TODAY!

10. 2021-10-27
    historical
11. 2021-10-20
    price $279,500
12. 2021-10-03
    listed $327,500 Active
13. 2008-09-30
    soldstatus
14. 2008-07-14
    historical
15. 2008-01-07
    listed $157,000
16. 2007-12-29
    historical
17. 2007-05-28
    listed $169,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $7,322 · $610/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,322 · $610/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 66% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,579
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,628
• − Property taxes: −$7,322
• − Insurance: −$1,395
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,526
• − Management: −$2,526
• − HOA: −$672
• − Depreciation: −$8,116
• Taxable loss: −$6,607
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,586
• After-tax cash flow: $-413/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Alvin ISD
• NCES district ID: 4808090
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $66,740
• Composite: 38.96/100
• National rank: #4080
• State rank: #255 of 826 in TX

Livability — Pearland

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #32
• US rank: #1539

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living B Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Brazoria County · 374,982 people
• City population: 142,397
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 52,747
• Household income: $119,287
• Rent vs Own: 9.8% rent · 90.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 251.0

Population outlook (Brazoria County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,414 people
• By 2030: 457,585 · +8.8%
• By 2040: 532,232 · +26.6%
• By 2050: 605,399 · +44.0%
• By 2075: 779,358 · +85.4%
• By 2100: 883,759 · +110.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 38% Black 34% White 20% Two or more races 18% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 31% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 28% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Brazoria

• 2024 margin: R (+19.7) · D 39.5% · R 59.2% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: -29.6pp · 2024: -19.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.7 2020: R+18.2 2016: R+24.6 2012: R+34.2 2008: R+29.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -120.19%
• Current HPI: 198.6559
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.44%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+64.2% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-14 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-10 Price Changed $279,000 HARMLS
• 2026-05-06 Listed $284,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-27 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-01-10 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-01-07 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2021-11-20 Pending — HARMLS
• 2021-11-12 Pending — HARMLS
• 2021-11-03 Listed $299,999 HARMLS
• 2021-10-27 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2021-10-20 Price Changed $279,500 HARMLS
• 2021-10-03 Listed $327,500 HARMLS
• 2008-09-30 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2008-07-14 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2008-01-07 Listed $157,000 HARMLS
• 2007-12-29 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2007-05-28 Listed $169,900 HARMLS

Property tax history

+2.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,322 · -6.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.