1192 State Route 52 #18

Loch Sheldrake, NY 12759

$90,000B-

1 bd · 1.5 ba · 960 sqft · Built 1938 · Condo · Pending · 101 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,412/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$472
• Tax + insurance: −$275
• HOA: −$375
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$297
• Net cashflow: $-7/mo
• Annual: $-80/yr
• Cap rate: 7.87%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.64%
• DSCR: 1.25
• 1% rule: 1.57%
• Cash to close: $25,200

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.5-bath condo listed at $90k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-7 ($-80/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $89k (1.1% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $90k).
• It's been on market 101 days — a 9% lower offer ($82k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $82k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $10k of equity ($622 loan paydown + $9k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#793 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A-, housing A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Fallsburg Central School District (town): math 29% / reading 27% proficiency, ranked #583 of 590 in NY (top 99%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Benjamin Cosor Elementary School (math 8% / reading 22%, grade F, #2,024 of 2,108 statewide, top 97%, 810 students, 72% FRL); Fallsburg Junior Senior High School (math 52% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,046 of 1,100 statewide, top 96%, 684 students, 64% FRL).
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo; HOA is 27% of rent; built in 1938 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 22 active listings in the ZIP; 739 units permitted in Sullivan County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Sullivan County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $5k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 101 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1938 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.