1192 State Route 52 #18 · Loch Sheldrake, NY 12759

$90,000

1 bd · 1.5 ba · 960 sqft · Condo · 101 Days on market

Built 1938 $375/mo HOA · 27% of rent ↓ 45% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.5/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.5/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0

Listing remarks

Motivated Seller says bring offers . . . Location, location, location is what this three season CO-OP offers!! The perfect place to spend your spring, summer and/or fall. Great lake front views and just steps away from relaxing on the waterfront outside your back door. This home is a three-season CO-OP which can be occupied from Mid-April to Mid-October. Upon entering the unit you take a step back in time when life didn’t have you tethered to your phone and you could sit back and relax. As you look straight through to the full glass doors you see the Lake front open and inviting. The home has a cathedral ceiling giving you a feel of a much larger home. The upstairs balcony off the bed

Key facts

• Upstairs balcony
• Cathedral ceiling
• Completely furnished

Tags

• LAKE FRONT VIEWS
• UPSTAIRS BALCONY
• CATHEDRAL CEILING
• COMPLETELY FURNISHED

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Loch Sheldrake Beach and Tennis association; Annual association fee; Association covers utilities, common area maintenance, electricity, gas, grounds care, heat, hot water, pool service, sewer, snow removal, trash and water; Community amenities: playground, pool, tennis courts

Exterior

• Parking: Common parking lot with private unassigned spaces
• Utilities: Public sewer; Cable available; Electricity connected; Phone available; Sewer connected; Trash collection (private); Water connected
• Home design: Townhouse; Stock cooperative; Entry level: 1
• Construction: Frame construction; Other foundation
• Exterior features: Waterfront setting; In-ground pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven; Electric range; Gas range
• Bedrooms: Bi-level layout; Pets allowed: cats and dogs
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom; One half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Hot air heating; Propane fuel
• Interior features: Beamed ceilings; Cathedral ceilings; Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; High ceilings; High-speed internet; Open floorplan; Open kitchen
• Laundry & utility: No basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.5-bath condo listed at $90k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-7 ($-80/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $89k (1.1% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $90k).
• Recommended offer: $82k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#793 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A-, housing A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Fallsburg Central School District (town): math 29% / reading 27% proficiency, ranked #583 of 590 in NY (top 99%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Benjamin Cosor Elementary School (math 8% / reading 22%, grade F, #2,024 of 2,108 statewide, top 97%, 810 students, 72% FRL); Fallsburg Junior Senior High School (math 52% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,046 of 1,100 statewide, top 96%, 684 students, 64% FRL).
• Market conditions: 22 active listings in the ZIP; 739 units permitted in Sullivan County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $10k of equity ($622 loan paydown + $9k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Sullivan County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 101 days — a 9% lower offer ($82k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $5k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo; HOA is 27% of rent; built in 1938 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $81,900 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 101 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1938 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
6. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
7. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
8. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
9. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
10. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
11. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
12. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
13. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
14. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
15. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.57% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.87%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.64%
• DSCR: 1.25
• GRM: 5.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.94×
• Total profit: $48,919
• Equity at exit: $81,079

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.5%
• Equity multiple: 6.76×
• Total profit: $145,047
• Equity at exit: $174,850

Cash invested: $25,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12759

• Home prices YoY: 5.1%
• Active inventory: 22
• Price-to-rent: 5.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,412 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$472
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$112 /mo · $1,350/yr
• Insurance: −$38
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$125 /mo · $1,502/yr
• HOA: −$375
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$297
• Net cashflow: $-7

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,420

Max offer price $89,032

Occupancy floor 95%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,500
• Closing costs: $2,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $375 · $4,500/yr
• Likely covers: water
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-04-23
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-31
   price $90,000
3. 2026-01-12
   listed $95,000 Active
4. 2026-01-06
   historical
5. 2025-10-19
   price $95,000
6. 2025-09-22
   listed $99,500 Active
7. 2025-09-18
   historical
8. 2025-09-03
   price $99,550
9. 2025-08-18
   price $100,000
10. 2025-08-15
    price $110,000
11. 2025-08-04
    price $120,000
12. 2025-04-15
    price $125,000
13. 2025-04-11
    price $134,500
14. 2024-12-14
    price $139,000
15. 2024-09-17
    listed $164,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone A · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 6 d/yr ≥91°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 6% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,944
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,041
• − Property taxes: −$1,350
• − Insurance: −$1,952
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,356
• − Management: −$1,356
• − HOA: −$4,500
• − Depreciation: −$2,618
• Taxable loss: −$1,229
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$295
• After-tax cash flow: $215/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fallsburg Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3610950
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 27% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $42,513
• Composite: 23.84/100
• National rank: #7805
• State rank: #583 of 590 in NY

Livability — Loch Sheldrake

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #793
• US rank: #15202

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment C+ Housing A- Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Loch Sheldrake, NY
• City population: 2,036
• Population (ZIP): 1,835

Population outlook (Sullivan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 68,974 people
• By 2030: 65,609 · -4.9%
• By 2040: 58,878 · -14.6%
• By 2050: 52,500 · -23.9%
• By 2075: 39,941 · -42.1%
• By 2100: 28,880 · -58.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.71)
• Race & ethnicity: White 39% Black 33% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 8% Native American 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 2% Dominican 5%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 3% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 12% Spanish 8% Tagalog/Filipino 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Sullivan

• 2024 margin: R (+16.7) · D 41.6% · R 58.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.2pp toward R · 2008: 9.5pp · 2024: -16.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.7 2020: R+9.2 2016: R+13.7 2012: D+10.4 2008: D+9.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 23.94%
• Current HPI: 495.297
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-45.4% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-31 Price Changed $90,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-12 Listed $95,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-06 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-19 Price Changed $95,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-22 Listed $99,500 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-18 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-03 Price Changed $99,550 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-18 Price Changed $100,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-15 Price Changed $110,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-04 Price Changed $120,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-15 Price Changed $125,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-11 Price Changed $134,500 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-12-14 Price Changed $139,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-09-17 Listed $164,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid