Jessup Grant Plan

Evansville, WY 82636

$97,000C-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,200 sqft · Built — · Manufactured · Active · 918 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,528/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax + insurance: −$242
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$321
• Net cashflow: $205/mo
• Annual: $2,463/yr
• Cap rate: 7.99%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.07%
• DSCR: 1.27
• 1% rule: 1.05%
• Cash to close: $40,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $97k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $205 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $97k).
• It's been on market 918 days — a 12% lower offer ($85k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $85k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#51 in WY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Natrona County School District #1 (urban): math 44% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 41 in WY (top 78%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lincoln Elementary School (math 42% / reading 32%, grade F, #128 of 151 statewide, top 86%, 459 students, 67% FRL); Centennial Middle School (math 37% / reading 54%, grade D+, #40 of 55 statewide, top 72%, 796 students, 31% FRL); Kelly Walsh High School (math 49% / reading 60%, grade C-, #18 of 75 statewide, top 30%, 2,051 students, 29% FRL).
• Market conditions: 66 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 310 units permitted in Natrona County in 2024 (104 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Natrona County population projected at +46% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 8.0% vs local median 5.0% in Evansville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 918 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.