Jessup Grant Plan · Evansville, WY 82636

$97,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,200 sqft · Manufactured · 964 Days on market

Manufactured home Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.6/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Appreciation +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Manufactured-home adj. -3.8

Key facts

• Listed 963 days

🏗️ New construction. The $97,000 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $145,000.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $97k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $42 ($507/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $97k).
• Recommended offer: $85k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#51 in WY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Natrona County School District #1 (urban): math 44% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 41 in WY (top 78%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lincoln Elementary School (math 42% / reading 32%, grade F, #128 of 151 statewide, top 86%, 459 students, 67% FRL); Centennial Middle School (math 37% / reading 54%, grade D+, #40 of 55 statewide, top 72%, 796 students, 31% FRL); Kelly Walsh High School (math 49% / reading 60%, grade C-, #18 of 75 statewide, top 30%, 2,051 students, 29% FRL).
• Market conditions: 81 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 1d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 310 units permitted in Natrona County in 2024 (104 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Natrona County population projected at +46% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 964 days — a 12% lower offer ($85k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $85,360 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 964 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.64%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.25%
• DSCR: 1.06
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $145,000
• List price: $97,000
• Delta: -33.10%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
29 Hills Dr	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,216 (+1%)	4mo	$70,000	$58	84
762 Whipsaw Dr	1.35mi	3/1.8	1,198 (-0%)	5mo	$330,000	$275	60
647 Wagon Trl	1.32mi	3/2.0	1,190 (-1%)	5mo	$299,900	$252	59
838 Cheney Loop	0.79mi	3/2.0	1,260 (+5%)	2mo	$479,900	$381	55
647 Bozeman Trl	1.26mi	3/1.8	1,107 (-8%)	3mo	$308,000	$278	49
420 S Sun Dr	1.37mi	4/1.8 (+1)	1,304 (+9%)	2mo	$330,000	$253	43
310 S Forest Dr	1.20mi	3/1.0	1,056 (-12%)	2mo	$249,900	$237	39
502 Thelma Dr	0.96mi	3/2.0	1,439 (+20%)	2mo	$325,000	$226	38
230 S Forest Dr	1.18mi	3/1.0	1,056 (-12%)	5mo	$250,000	$237	37
3075 Indiana Ave	1.41mi	3/1.0	1,000 (-17%)	2mo	$224,500	$225	34
970 Park Ln	1.18mi	3/1.0	960 (-20%)	2mo	$33,000	$34	34
3044 Indiana Ave	1.45mi	3/1.0	1,000 (-17%)	3mo	$230,000	$230	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.49×
• Total profit: $-20,786
• Equity at exit: $21,620

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.64×
• Total profit: $-14,554
• Equity at exit: $12,537

Cash invested: $40,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Wyoming: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+25
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; strongly landlord-favorable; small market.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 22 active · 1 under contract
• Months of supply: 132.0 mo (1%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $88,000 ($75/sqft)
• Median days on market: 73 d
• This list price: 86% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +61.4% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 82636

• Home prices YoY: -24.9%
• Active inventory: 81
• Price-to-rent: 6.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,322 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$181 /mo · $2,175/yr
• Insurance: −$60
• HOA: −$0
• Lot rent leased land?: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$278
• Net cashflow: $42

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,268

Max offer price $145,000

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $142	-5% $92	+0% $42	+5% $-8	+10% $-58
Rent	-10% $-62	-5% $-10	+0% $42	+5% $94	+10% $147
Rate	-1.0pp $115	-0.5pp $79	base $42	+0.5pp $5	+1.0pp $-34

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,250
• Closing costs: $4,350
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5200 Blackmore Rd Casper, WY	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1088	$2,592	$2.38	0d	31	0.64mi
760 Landmark Dr Casper, WY	1.0–2.0	1.0	719	$900	$1.25	0d	1	0.75mi
3900 E 12th St Casper, WY	2.0	1.0	850	$990	$1.16	0d	11	1.19mi
3065 Indiana Ave Casper, WY	3.0	1.0	1050	$1,450	$1.38	2d	1	1.43mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Status: ActiveInventory type: PlanLast modified: 2026-06-08
• Financial info: List price $80,000

Exterior

• Utilities: Natural gas heating availableCentral air conditioning
• Home design: Plan homeLocated in Evansville, WY
• Construction: Living area approximately 1200Plan: Jessup Grant
• Exterior features: Shake roof

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas forced-air heatingCentral air conditioning
• Interior features: Open floor plan (plan home)Plan name: Jessup Grant

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $97,000 Active 964 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $97,000 Active 963 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $97,000 Active 962 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $97,000 Active 961 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $97,000 Active 960 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $97,000 Active 958 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $97,000 Active 957 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $97,000 Active 956 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $97,000 Active 955 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $97,000 Active 954 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $97,000 Active 953 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $97,000 Active 952 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $97,000 Active 951 DOM
14. 2026-10-25
    days on market $97,000 Active 950 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $97,000 Active 949 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $97,000 Active 948 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $97,000 Active 947 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $97,000 Active 946 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $97,000 Active 945 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $97,000 Active 944 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $97,000 Active 943 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $97,000 Active 942 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $97,000 Active 941 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $97,000 Active 940 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $97,000 Active 939 DOM
26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $97,000 Active 938 DOM
27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $97,000 Active 937 DOM
28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $97,000 Active 936 DOM
29. 2026-10-10
    days on market $97,000 Active 935 DOM
30. 2026-10-09
    days on market $97,000 Active 934 DOM
31. 2026-10-08
    days on market $97,000 Active 933 DOM
32. 2026-10-07
    days on market $97,000 Active 932 DOM
33. 2026-10-06
    days on market $97,000 Active 931 DOM
34. 2026-10-05
    days on market $97,000 Active 930 DOM
35. 2026-10-04
    days on market $97,000 Active 929 DOM
36. 2026-10-04
    days on market $97,000 Active 928 DOM
37. 2026-10-02
    days on market $97,000 Active 927 DOM
38. 2026-10-01
    days on market $97,000 Active 926 DOM
39. 2026-09-30
    days on market $97,000 Active 925 DOM
40. 2026-09-29
    days on market $97,000 Active 924 DOM
41. 2026-09-28
    days on market $97,000 Active 923 DOM
42. 2026-09-27
    days on market $97,000 Active 922 DOM
43. 2026-09-26
    days on market $97,000 Active 921 DOM
44. 2026-09-25
    days on market $97,000 Active 920 DOM
45. 2026-09-24
    days on market $97,000 Active 919 DOM
46. 2026-09-24
    days on market $97,000 Active 918 DOM
47. 2026-09-22
    days on market $97,000 Active 917 DOM
48. 2026-09-21
    days on market $97,000 Active 916 DOM
49. 2026-09-20
    days on market $97,000 Active 915 DOM
50. 2026-09-18
    days on market $97,000 Active 913 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,863
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,122
• − Property taxes: −$2,175
• − Insurance: −$725
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,269
• − Management: −$1,269
• − Depreciation: −$4,218
• Taxable loss: −$1,916
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$460
• After-tax cash flow: $967/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $6,000–$18,000 screening

This mobile home is in good condition with a modern interior and exterior. It has a good foundation and structure, and the current maintenance is up to date. The home is ready for a fresh coat of paint and landscaping improvements to further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value by making the home more modern and convenient. ↑
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Upgrading to modern appliances can enhance the kitchen's functionality and appeal to potential buyers/renters. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 45/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Woods Learning Center F WY #118/151 Nat'l #19,648/41,679 Middle Dean Morgan Middle School F WY #50/55 Nat'l #5,602/14,009 High Kelly Walsh High School C- WY #18/75 Nat'l #4,461/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Natrona County School District #1
• NCES district ID: 5604510
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $55,217
• Composite: 41.6/100
• National rank: #3437
• State rank: #32 of 41 in WY

C Composite livability gradescore 68/100

Livability — Evansville

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #51
• US rank: #9711

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Evansville, WY
• County: Natrona · 98,530 people
• Metro: Casper, WY
• Population (ZIP): 3,856
• Household income: $82,592
• Rent vs Own: 27.5% rent · 72.5% own

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Population outlook (Natrona County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 98,530 people
• By 2030: 107,084 · +8.7%
• By 2040: 124,838 · +26.7%
• By 2050: 143,617 · +45.8%
• By 2075: 192,378 · +95.2%
• By 2100: 228,435 · +131.8%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 10% Asian 2% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

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Political lean MEDSL · Natrona

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+48.6) · D 24.8% · R 73.5% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.3pp toward R · 2008: -34.4pp · 2024: -48.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+48.6 2020: R+47.6 2016: R+52.2 2012: R+41.1 2008: R+34.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -64.77%
• Current HPI: 195.2252
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Status: ActiveInventory type: PlanLast modified: 2026-06-08
• Financial info: List price $80,000

Exterior

• Utilities: Natural gas heating availableCentral air conditioning
• Home design: Plan homeLocated in Evansville, WY
• Construction: Living area approximately 1200Plan: Jessup Grant
• Exterior features: Shake roof

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas forced-air heatingCentral air conditioning
• Interior features: Open floor plan (plan home)Plan name: Jessup Grant