Jessup Grant Plan · Evansville, WY 82636

$97,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,200 sqft · Manufactured · 918 Days on market

Manufactured home Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.7/10.0
• 1% rule +5.5/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Appreciation +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Manufactured-home adj. -4.6

Key facts

• Listed 918 days

🏗️ New construction. The $97,000 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $145,000.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $97k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $205 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $97k).
• Recommended offer: $85k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.0% vs local median 5.0% in Evansville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#51 in WY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Natrona County School District #1 (urban): math 44% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 41 in WY (top 78%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lincoln Elementary School (math 42% / reading 32%, grade F, #128 of 151 statewide, top 86%, 459 students, 67% FRL); Centennial Middle School (math 37% / reading 54%, grade D+, #40 of 55 statewide, top 72%, 796 students, 31% FRL); Kelly Walsh High School (math 49% / reading 60%, grade C-, #18 of 75 statewide, top 30%, 2,051 students, 29% FRL).
• Market conditions: 66 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 310 units permitted in Natrona County in 2024 (104 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Natrona County population projected at +46% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 918 days — a 12% lower offer ($85k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $85,360 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 918 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.05% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.99%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.07%
• DSCR: 1.27
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $145,000
• List price: $97,000
• Delta: -33.10%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
29 Hills Dr	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,216 (+1%)	3mo	$70,000	$58	85
762 Whipsaw Dr	1.35mi	3/1.8	1,198 (-0%)	3mo	$330,000	$275	61
647 Wagon Trl	1.32mi	3/2.0	1,190 (-1%)	4mo	$299,900	$252	61
838 Cheney Loop	0.79mi	3/2.0	1,260 (+5%)	1mo	$479,900	$381	56
647 Bozeman Trl	1.26mi	3/1.8	1,107 (-8%)	2mo	$308,000	$278	50
420 S Sun Dr	1.37mi	4/1.8 (+1)	1,304 (+9%)	1mo	$330,000	$253	44
310 S Forest Dr	1.20mi	3/1.0	1,056 (-12%)	1mo	$249,900	$237	40
502 Thelma Dr	0.96mi	3/2.0	1,439 (+20%)	0mo	$325,000	$226	40
230 S Forest Dr	1.18mi	3/1.0	1,056 (-12%)	3mo	$250,000	$237	38
3075 Indiana Ave	1.41mi	3/1.0	1,000 (-17%)	1mo	$224,500	$225	35
970 Park Ln	1.18mi	3/1.0	960 (-20%)	1mo	$33,000	$34	35
3044 Indiana Ave	1.45mi	3/1.0	1,000 (-17%)	1mo	$230,000	$230	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.74×
• Total profit: $-10,399
• Equity at exit: $21,620

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.19×
• Total profit: $7,873
• Equity at exit: $12,537

Cash invested: $40,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Wyoming: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+25
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; strongly landlord-favorable; small market.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 17 active · 2 under contract
• Months of supply: 102.0 mo (1%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $89,000 ($77/sqft)
• Median days on market: 76 d
• This list price: 88% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +57.6% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 82636

• Home prices YoY: -24.9%
• Active inventory: 66
• Price-to-rent: 5.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,528 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$181 /mo · $2,175/yr
• Insurance: −$60
• HOA: −$0
• Lot rent leased land?: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$321
• Net cashflow: $205

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,268

Max offer price $145,000

Occupancy floor 82%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $305	-5% $255	+0% $205	+5% $155	+10% $105
Rent	-10% $85	-5% $145	+0% $205	+5% $266	+10% $326
Rate	-1.0pp $278	-0.5pp $242	base $205	+0.5pp $168	+1.0pp $129

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,250
• Closing costs: $4,350
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5200 Blackmore Rd Casper, WY	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1088	$2,592	$2.38	1d	40	0.64mi
760 Landmark Dr Casper, WY	1.0–2.0	1.0	719	$900	$1.25	1d	1	0.75mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Status: ActiveInventory type: PlanLast modified: 2026-06-08
• Financial info: List price $80,000

Exterior

• Utilities: Natural gas heating availableCentral air conditioning
• Home design: Plan homeLocated in Evansville, WY
• Construction: Living area approximately 1200Plan: Jessup Grant
• Exterior features: Shake roof

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas forced-air heatingCentral air conditioning
• Interior features: Open floor plan (plan home)Plan name: Jessup Grant

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-24
   days on market $97,000 Active 918 DOM
2. 2026-09-22
   days on market $97,000 Active 917 DOM
3. 2026-09-21
   days on market $97,000 Active 916 DOM
4. 2026-09-20
   days on market $97,000 Active 915 DOM
5. 2026-09-18
   days on market $97,000 Active 913 DOM
6. 2026-09-17
   days on market $97,000 Active 912 DOM
7. 2026-09-16
   days on market $97,000 Active 911 DOM
8. 2026-09-15
   days on market $97,000 Active 910 DOM
9. 2026-09-14
   days on market $97,000 Active 909 DOM
10. 2026-09-13
    days on market $97,000 Active 908 DOM
11. 2026-09-12
    days on market $97,000 Active 907 DOM
12. 2026-09-11
    days on market $97,000 Active 906 DOM
13. 2026-09-05
    days on market $97,000 Active 900 DOM
14. 2026-09-04
    days on market $97,000 Active 899 DOM
15. 2026-09-03
    days on market $97,000 Active 898 DOM
16. 2026-09-02
    days on market $97,000 Active 897 DOM
17. 2026-08-30
    days on market $97,000 Active 894 DOM
18. 2026-08-29
    days on market $97,000 Active 893 DOM
19. 2026-08-28
    days on market $97,000 Active 892 DOM
20. 2026-08-27
    days on market $97,000 Active 891 DOM
21. 2026-08-26
    days on market $97,000 Active 890 DOM
22. 2026-08-25
    days on market $97,000 Active 889 DOM
23. 2026-08-24
    days on market $97,000 Active 888 DOM
24. 2026-08-23
    days on market $97,000 Active 887 DOM
25. 2026-08-22
    days on market $97,000 Active 886 DOM
26. 2026-08-20
    days on market $97,000 Active 884 DOM
27. 2026-08-19
    days on market $97,000 Active 883 DOM
28. 2026-08-18
    days on market $97,000 Active 882 DOM
29. 2026-08-17
    days on market $97,000 Active 881 DOM
30. 2026-08-16
    days on market $97,000 Active 880 DOM
31. 2026-08-15
    days on market $97,000 Active 879 DOM
32. 2026-08-14
    days on market $97,000 Active 878 DOM
33. 2026-08-13
    days on market $97,000 Active 877 DOM
34. 2026-08-12
    days on market $97,000 Active 876 DOM
35. 2026-08-11
    days on market $97,000 Active 875 DOM
36. 2026-08-10
    days on market $97,000 Active 874 DOM
37. 2026-08-09
    days on market $97,000 Active 873 DOM
38. 2026-08-08
    days on market $97,000 Active 872 DOM
39. 2026-08-07
    days on market $97,000 Active 871 DOM
40. 2026-08-06
    days on market $97,000 Active 870 DOM
41. 2026-08-05
    days on market $97,000 Active 869 DOM
42. 2026-08-04
    days on market $97,000 Active 868 DOM
43. 2026-08-03
    days on market $97,000 Active 867 DOM
44. 2026-07-31
    days on market $97,000 Active 864 DOM
45. 2026-07-30
    days on market $97,000 Active 863 DOM
46. 2026-07-29
    days on market $97,000 Active 862 DOM
47. 2026-07-27
    days on market $97,000 Active 860 DOM
48. 2026-07-25
    days on market $97,000 Active 858 DOM
49. 2026-07-23
    days on market $97,000 Active 856 DOM
50. 2026-07-22
    days on market $97,000 Active 855 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,339
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,122
• − Property taxes: −$2,175
• − Insurance: −$725
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,467
• − Management: −$1,467
• − Depreciation: −$4,218
• Taxable income: $165
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$39
• After-tax cash flow: $2,424/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $6,000–$18,000 screening

This mobile home is in good condition with a modern interior and exterior. It has a good foundation and structure, and the current maintenance is up to date. The home is ready for a fresh coat of paint and landscaping improvements to further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value by making the home more modern and convenient. ↑
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Upgrading to modern appliances can enhance the kitchen's functionality and appeal to potential buyers/renters. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 45/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Woods Learning Center F WY #118/151 Nat'l #19,648/41,679 Middle Dean Morgan Middle School F WY #50/55 Nat'l #5,602/14,009 High Kelly Walsh High School C- WY #18/75 Nat'l #4,461/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Natrona County School District #1
• NCES district ID: 5604510
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $55,217
• Composite: 41.6/100
• National rank: #3437
• State rank: #32 of 41 in WY

C Composite livability gradescore 68/100

Livability — Evansville

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #51
• US rank: #9711

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Evansville, WY
• County: Natrona · 98,530 people
• Metro: Casper, WY
• Population (ZIP): 3,856
• Household income: $82,592
• Rent vs Own: 27.5% rent · 72.5% own

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Population outlook (Natrona County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 98,530 people
• By 2030: 107,084 · +8.7%
• By 2040: 124,838 · +26.7%
• By 2050: 143,617 · +45.8%
• By 2075: 192,378 · +95.2%
• By 2100: 228,435 · +131.8%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 10% Asian 2% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 4% Slovak 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

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Political lean MEDSL · Natrona

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+48.6) · D 24.8% · R 73.5% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.3pp toward R · 2008: -34.4pp · 2024: -48.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+48.6 2020: R+47.6 2016: R+52.2 2012: R+41.1 2008: R+34.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -64.77%
• Current HPI: 195.2252
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Status: ActiveInventory type: PlanLast modified: 2026-06-08
• Financial info: List price $80,000

Exterior

• Utilities: Natural gas heating availableCentral air conditioning
• Home design: Plan homeLocated in Evansville, WY
• Construction: Living area approximately 1200Plan: Jessup Grant
• Exterior features: Shake roof

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas forced-air heatingCentral air conditioning
• Interior features: Open floor plan (plan home)Plan name: Jessup Grant