Roma Plan

Wesley Chapel, FL 33545

$431,599D-

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,689 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 170 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,594/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,507
• Tax + insurance: −$797
• HOA: −$523
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$545
• Net cashflow: $-1,777/mo
• Annual: $-21,325/yr
• Cap rate: 1.83%
• Cash-on-cash: -15.93%
• DSCR: 0.29
• 1% rule: 0.54%
• Cash to close: $133,847

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $432k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-21k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $221k (48.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $259k (39.9% below list).
• It's been on market 170 days — a 12% lower offer ($380k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $221k (48.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#143 in FL, #2,137 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Sand Pine Elementary School (math 68% / reading 69%, grade B+, #409 of 2,144 statewide, top 20%, 522 students, 40% FRL); Dr. John Long Middle School (math 75% / reading 62%, grade A, #72 of 571 statewide, top 13%, 1,349 students, 28% FRL); Wiregrass Ranch High School (math 60% / reading 69%, grade B-, #78 of 667 statewide, top 13%, 2,114 students, 25% FRL) — zoned schools average 31% FRL vs 48% district-wide (18 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 67% at this address vs 51% district-wide (+16 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Pasco average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 20% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.7%/yr); 832 active listings in the ZIP; 26 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 65d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 88% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 1.8% vs local median 3.5% in Wesley Chapel — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 170 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 49% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.