Roma Plan · Wesley Chapel, FL 33545

$431,599

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,689 sqft · SingleFamily · 170 Days on market

55+ age-restricted Good condition Garage $523/mo HOA · 20% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.7/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• DSCR +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +1.8/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Located in 55+ resort lifestyle community, Esplanade at Wiregrass Ranch, the Roma is one of Taylor Morrison's remarkable floor plans, and the features within this marvelous villa home represent the quality and comfort that modern home buyers deserve. The 1,689 square foot detached villa home brings forward 2 bedrooms, 2 baths, a study (which can be converted into a 3rd bedroom), a 2-car garage, and more! From the side entry, you are lead into the center of the home, the heart of all of the entertaining and revitalization that you will be doing within. The dazzling designer kitchen overlooks the open-concept great room and is joined adjacently by the dining room.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 169 days

🏗️ New construction. The $431,599 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $478,024.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $432k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-21k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $221k (48.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $259k (39.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $221k (48.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 1.8% vs local median 3.5% in Wesley Chapel — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#143 in FL, #2,137 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Sand Pine Elementary School (math 68% / reading 69%, grade B+, #409 of 2,144 statewide, top 20%, 522 students, 40% FRL); Dr. John Long Middle School (math 75% / reading 62%, grade A, #72 of 571 statewide, top 13%, 1,349 students, 28% FRL); Wiregrass Ranch High School (math 60% / reading 69%, grade B-, #78 of 667 statewide, top 13%, 2,114 students, 25% FRL) — zoned schools average 31% FRL vs 48% district-wide (18 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 67% at this address vs 51% district-wide (+16 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Pasco average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.7%/yr); 832 active listings in the ZIP; 26 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 65d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 88% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 170 days — a 12% lower offer ($380k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 20% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $220,876 (48.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 170 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 49% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.54% ✗
• Cap rate: 1.83%
• Cash-on-cash: -15.93%
• DSCR: 0.29
• GRM: 15.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $478,024
• List price: $431,599
• Delta: -9.71%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4399 Rosatti Rd	0.12mi	2/2.0	1,694 (+0%)	4mo	$447,000	$264	91
29485 Velletri Ln	0.19mi	2/2.0	1,694 (+0%)	4mo	$400,000	$236	87
3925 Fraccareta Way	0.64mi	2/2.0	1,689 (0%)	4mo	$409,874	$243	67
4257 Rosatti Rd	0.04mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,934 (+14%)	5mo	$535,000	$277	65
4337 Rosatti Rd	0.10mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,934 (+14%)	3mo	$520,297	$269	64
29477 Velletri Ln	0.20mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,925 (+14%)	5mo	$485,000	$252	58
4169 Barletta Ct	0.56mi	2/2.0	1,861 (+10%)	4mo	$488,500	$262	54
3866 Consolare Ct	0.53mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,926 (+14%)	6mo	$425,000	$221	42
3871 Cavour Ct	0.56mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,926 (+14%)	5mo	$440,004	$228	41
4534 Garofalo Rd	0.65mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,934 (+14%)	0mo	$515,000	$266	40
3845 Fraccareta Way	0.66mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,925 (+14%)	2mo	$430,919	$224	39
3909 Fraccareta Way	0.65mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,926 (+14%)	4mo	$469,999	$244	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -51.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.48×
• Total profit: $-197,886
• Equity at exit: $71,275

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: -1.58×
• Total profit: $-345,974
• Equity at exit: $41,331

Cash invested: $133,847 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 24 active · 21 under contract
• Months of supply: 6.0 mo (17%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $472,999 ($255/sqft)
• Median days on market: 68 d
• This list price: 8% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +10.8% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 33545

• Home prices YoY: -17.4%
• Rents YoY: -2.7%
• Active inventory: 832
• Price-to-rent: 13.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,594 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,507
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$598 /mo · $7,170/yr
• Insurance: −$199
• HOA: −$523
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$545
• Net cashflow: $-1,777

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,844

Max offer price $220,876

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,447	-5% $-1,612	+0% $-1,777	+5% $-1,942	+10% $-2,107
Rent	-10% $-1,982	-5% $-1,880	+0% $-1,777	+5% $-1,675	+10% $-1,572
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,536	-0.5pp $-1,656	base $-1,777	+0.5pp $-1,901	+1.0pp $-2,027

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $119,506
• Closing costs: $14,341
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 26 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4748 Foxhunt Dr Unit A912 Wesley Chapel, FL	2.0	2.0	1368	$1,200	$0.88	70d	1	0.51mi
4744 Fox Hunt Dr Unit 1022 & 1024 Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.0	1420	$2,450	$1.73	60d	1	0.58mi
29300 Bay Hollow Dr #3258 Wesley Chapel, FL	2.0	2.0	1096	$2,450	$2.24	45d	1	0.64mi
3928 Fraccareta Way Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.0	1956	$3,225	$1.65	120d	1	0.67mi
4567 Tivoli Dr Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	3.0	2233	$3,750	$1.68	64d	1	0.68mi
3874 Fraccareta Way Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.0	1976	$2,749	$1.39	10d	1	0.69mi
4596 Almada Ln Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1827	$2,600	$1.42	6d	1	0.94mi
4612 Almada Ln Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	2048	$2,750	$1.34	120d	1	0.94mi
4599 Almada Ln Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	2047	$2,850	$1.39	45d	1	0.97mi
4639 Almada Ln Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1827	$2,695	$1.48	120d	1	0.99mi
4664 Lagona Ln Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	3.0	2050	$2,800	$1.37	120d	1	1.00mi
4712 Lagona Ln Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.0	1827	$2,375	$1.30	45d	1	1.01mi
4836 San Martino Dr Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.0	1827	$2,300	$1.26	45d	1	1.02mi
4830 Isola Ct Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	2047	$2,800	$1.37	113d	1	1.04mi
4565 Ancona Way Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	2047	$2,750	$1.34	76d	1	1.08mi
4549 Ancona Way Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1827	$2,775	$1.52	69d	1	1.09mi
4989 San Martino Dr Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	2047	$2,800	$1.37	100d	1	1.12mi
5062 San Martino Dr Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1827	$2,500	$1.37	45d	1	1.15mi
5424 Saddlebrook Way Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.0	1693	$2,600	$1.54	95d	1	1.18mi
5427 Villa Deste Ct Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	3.0	1534	$4,995	$3.26	64d	1	1.19mi
5427 Villa Deste Ct Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	3.0	1560	$4,250	$2.72	56d	1	1.19mi
5427 Villa Deste Ct Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	3.0	1534	$4,200	$2.74	45d	1	1.19mi
5439 Lady Bug Ln #2 Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1688	$2,000	$1.18	120d	1	1.21mi
28355 Sparrows Edge Cir Wesley Chapel, FL	2.0	1.0–2.0	894	$3,369	$3.77	0d	48	1.30mi
28423 Pleasant Bay Loop Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1801	$2,600	$1.44	60d	1	1.36mi
30816 Pumpkin Ridge Dr Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	2174	$2,250	$1.03	113d	1	1.44mi

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: 2 garage spaces (2 total parking spaces)
• Home design: Single-family plan (Roma)
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1,689

Interior

• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Plan-built home (Roma plan)

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-24
   days on market $431,599 Active 170 DOM
2. 2026-09-23
   days on market $431,599 Active 169 DOM
3. 2026-09-22
   days on market $431,599 Active 168 DOM
4. 2026-09-21
   days on market $431,599 Active 167 DOM
5. 2026-09-20
   days on market $431,599 Active 166 DOM
6. 2026-09-19
   days on market $431,599 Active 165 DOM
7. 2026-09-18
   pricedays on market $431,599 Active 164 DOM
8. 2026-09-16
   days on market $361,999 Active 162 DOM
9. 2026-09-15
   days on market $361,999 Active 161 DOM
10. 2026-09-13
    days on market $361,999 Active 159 DOM
11. 2026-09-12
    days on market $361,999 Active 158 DOM
12. 2026-09-11
    days on market $361,999 Active 157 DOM
13. 2026-09-05
    days on market $361,999 Active 151 DOM
14. 2026-09-04
    days on market $361,999 Active 150 DOM
15. 2026-09-03
    days on market $361,999 Active 149 DOM
16. 2026-08-31
    days on market $361,999 Active 146 DOM
17. 2026-08-30
    days on market $361,999 Active 145 DOM
18. 2026-08-29
    days on market $361,999 Active 144 DOM
19. 2026-08-28
    days on market $361,999 Active 143 DOM
20. 2026-08-26
    pricedays on market $361,999 Active 141 DOM
21. 2026-08-25
    days on market $359,999 Active 140 DOM
22. 2026-08-24
    days on market $359,999 Active 139 DOM
23. 2026-08-23
    days on market $359,999 Active 138 DOM
24. 2026-08-22
    days on market $359,999 Active 137 DOM
25. 2026-08-20
    days on market $359,999 Active 135 DOM
26. 2026-08-19
    days on market $359,999 Active 134 DOM
27. 2026-08-18
    days on market $359,999 Active 133 DOM
28. 2026-08-17
    days on market $359,999 Active 132 DOM
29. 2026-08-16
    days on market $359,999 Active 131 DOM
30. 2026-08-15
    days on market $359,999 Active 130 DOM
31. 2026-08-14
    days on market $359,999 Active 129 DOM
32. 2026-08-13
    days on market $359,999 Active 128 DOM
33. 2026-08-12
    days on market $359,999 Active 127 DOM
34. 2026-08-11
    days on market $359,999 Active 126 DOM
35. 2026-08-10
    days on market $359,999 Active 125 DOM
36. 2026-08-09
    days on market $359,999 Active 124 DOM
37. 2026-08-08
    days on market $359,999 Active 123 DOM
38. 2026-08-06
    days on market $359,999 Active 121 DOM
39. 2026-08-05
    days on market $359,999 Active 120 DOM
40. 2026-08-04
    days on market $359,999 Active 119 DOM
41. 2026-08-03
    days on market $359,999 Active 118 DOM
42. 2026-07-31
    pricedays on market $359,999 Active 115 DOM
43. 2026-07-30
    days on market $349,999 Active 113 DOM
44. 2026-07-28
    days on market $349,999 Active 112 DOM
45. 2026-07-26
    days on market $349,999 Active 110 DOM
46. 2026-07-24
    days on market $349,999 Active 108 DOM
47. 2026-07-23
    days on market $349,999 Active 107 DOM
48. 2026-07-22
    days on market $349,999 Active 106 DOM
49. 2026-07-21
    days on market $349,999 Active 105 DOM
50. 2026-07-20
    days on market $349,999 Active 104 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 6 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,131
• − Mortgage interest: −$26,777
• − Property taxes: −$7,170
• − Insurance: −$2,390
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,490
• − Management: −$2,490
• − HOA: −$6,276
• − Depreciation: −$13,906
• Taxable loss: −$30,370
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$7,289
• After-tax cash flow: $-14,036/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This well-maintained single-family home in a resort-style community offers a good investment opportunity with minimal repairs and maintenance needed.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value to the property. ↑
• Both Painting exterior trim — Fresh paint can improve the home's curb appeal and value. ↑
• Both Landscaping maintenance — Well-maintained landscaping can enhance the home's appeal and value. ↑
• Both HVAC maintenance — Regular maintenance ensures the HVAC system operates efficiently and reduces energy costs. ↑

C Composite school gradezoned avg 67/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Sand Pine Elementary School B+ FL #409/2,144 Nat'l #4,125/41,679 Middle Dr. John Long Middle School A FL #72/571 Nat'l #943/14,009 High Wiregrass Ranch High School B- FL #78/667 Nat'l #2,821/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

B Composite livability gradescore 79/100

Livability — Wesley Chapel

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #143
• US rank: #2137

Category grades

Amenities C Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Wesley Chapel, FL
• County: Pasco County · 570,045 people
• City population: 100,771
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 30,222
• Household income: $118,889
• Rent vs Own: 17.3% rent · 82.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 18% of renters

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Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 45% Hispanic / Latino 30% Two or more races 20% Black 14% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 10% Cuban 2% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 2% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 17% Other Indo-European 3% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

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Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -57.59%
• Current HPI: 273.0769
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.68%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: 2 garage spaces (2 total parking spaces)
• Home design: Single-family plan (Roma)
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1,689

Interior

• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Plan-built home (Roma plan)