3124 Route 9w

Saugerties South, NY 12477

$389,000B-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,629 sqft · Built 1890 · MultiFamily · Active · 18 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $5,836/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,040
• Tax + insurance: −$673
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,226
• Net cashflow: $1,897/mo
• Annual: $22,767/yr
• Cap rate: 12.15%
• Cash-on-cash: 20.90%
• DSCR: 1.93
• 1% rule: 1.50%
• Cash to close: $108,920

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath multifamily listed at $389k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($23k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($6k rent vs $389k).
• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($383k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $383k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#797 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A, employment B; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Saugerties Central School District (suburban): math 38% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #419 of 590 in NY (top 71%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: built in 1890 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 173 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 464 units permitted in Ulster County in 2024 (170 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Ulster County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 4 sale attempts since 15y ago; this cycle's ask is 129% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $172k; list at $389k implies a 126% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $109k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• At $5,836/mo this rent would consume 87% of the median local household income ($81k/yr) (locally 725% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1890 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.