3124 Route 9w · Saugerties South, NY 12477

$389,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,629 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 18 Days on market

Built 1890 1.40 ac lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 1 unit. estimate disagrees with records

Listing remarks MLS

Single family home nicely updated on a over-sized 1.40 acres lot. Property is zoned commercial so an in-house business is permitted. Live here, work here or both. Homes interior offers a new kitchen, new windows, updated electric and gleaming floors. There are two bedrooms on the fist floor with a full bath and three bedrooms upstairs with a full bath. Zoning is "High Density General Business" minimum lot size of 10,000 square feet if a buyer wanted to develop the property. Municipal water, sewer and gas.

Key facts

• 1.4 acre lot
• 480 garage spots
• Built 1890

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath multifamily listed at $389k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($23k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($6k rent vs $389k).
• Recommended offer: $383k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#797 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A, employment B; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Saugerties Central School District (suburban): math 38% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #419 of 590 in NY (top 71%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 173 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 464 units permitted in Ulster County in 2024 (170 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $5,836/mo this rent would consume 87% of the median local household income ($81k/yr) (locally 725% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ulster County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $109k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($383k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 15y ago; this cycle's ask is 129% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $172k; list at $389k implies a 126% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1890 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $383,165 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1890 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.50% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.15%
• Cash-on-cash: 20.90%
• DSCR: 1.93
• GRM: 5.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.53×
• Total profit: $57,905
• Equity at exit: $58,001

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.90×
• Total profit: $206,439
• Equity at exit: $33,634

Cash invested: $108,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12477

• Home prices YoY: -18.1%
• Active inventory: 173
• Price-to-rent: 15.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,836 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,040
• Tax from tax record: −$511 /mo · $6,134/yr
• Insurance: −$162
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,226
• Net cashflow: $1,897

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,434

Max offer price $389,000

Occupancy floor 62%

3-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	2	1	$4,106
1× unit	1	1	$1,730
Total (3 units)			$5,836

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $97,250
• Closing costs: $11,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1 Trinity Ct Saugerties, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1015	$2,970	$2.93	14d	6	0.82mi
1 Trinity Ct Saugerties, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	988	$2,800	$2.83	44d	13	0.82mi
84 Glasco Tpke Unit 1 Glasco, NY	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,950	$1.77	44d	1	0.89mi
14 Montross St Unit A Saugerties, NY	3.0	1.5	1300	$2,400	$1.85	23d	1	1.33mi
42 Russell St Saugerties, NY	2.0	2.0	1408	$2,500	$1.78	23d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $389,000 Active 18 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $389,000 Active 17 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $389,000 Active 16 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $389,000 Active 15 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $389,000 Active 14 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $389,000 Active 12 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $389,000 Active 11 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $389,000 Active 8 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $389,000 Active 7 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $389,000 Active 6 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $389,000 Active 3 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $389,000 Active 2 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    statusdays on market $389,000 Active 1 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $389,000 Coming Soon 4 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $389,000 Coming Soon 3 DOM
16. 2026-05-28
    historical $389,000
17. 2016-10-03
    soldstatus $172,000 520-char remark

    Show marketing remark (520 chars)

    Single family home nicely updated on a over-sized 1.40 acres lot. Property is zoned commercial so an in-house business is permitted. Live here, work here or both. Homes interior offers a new kitchen, new windows, updated electric and gleaming floors. There are two bedrooms on the fist floor with a full bath and three bedrooms upstairs with a full bath. Zoning is "High Density General Business" minimum lot size of 10,000 square feet if a buyer wanted to develop the property. Municipal water, sewer and gas.

18. 2016-10-03
    soldstatus $172,000

    Show marketing remark (520 chars)

    Single family home nicely updated on a over-sized 1.40 acres lot. Property is zoned commercial so an in-house business is permitted. Live here, work here or both. Homes interior offers a new kitchen, new windows, updated electric and gleaming floors. There are two bedrooms on the fist floor with a full bath and three bedrooms upstairs with a full bath. Zoning is "High Density General Business" minimum lot size of 10,000 square feet if a buyer wanted to develop the property. Municipal water, sewer and gas.

19. 2016-04-21
    listed $169,900 520-char remark

    Show marketing remark (520 chars)

    Single family home nicely updated on a over-sized 1.40 acres lot. Property is zoned commercial so an in-house business is permitted. Live here, work here or both. Homes interior offers a new kitchen, new windows, updated electric and gleaming floors. There are two bedrooms on the fist floor with a full bath and three bedrooms upstairs with a full bath. Zoning is "High Density General Business" minimum lot size of 10,000 square feet if a buyer wanted to develop the property. Municipal water, sewer and gas.

20. 2015-11-30
    listed $169,900
21. 2013-04-10
    listed $229,900
22. 2011-08-11
    listed $220,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $6,134 · $511/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,354 · $529/mo
• Expected delta: +$220/yr (+$18/mo · 3.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 9% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $70,032
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,790
• − Property taxes: −$6,134
• − Insurance: −$1,945
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$5,603
• − Management: −$5,603
• − Depreciation: −$11,316
• Taxable income: $17,642
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$4,234
• After-tax cash flow: $18,533/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Saugerties Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3625800
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▲ 8.00%
• Median HH income: $56,897
• Composite: 41.3/100
• National rank: #3515
• State rank: #419 of 590 in NY

Livability — Saugerties South

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #797
• US rank: #15405

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C+ Crime A Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Saugerties South, NY
• County: Ulster County · 56,183 people
• Metro: Kingston, NY
• Population (ZIP): 19,066
• Household income: $80,861
• Rent vs Own: 30.8% rent · 69.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 725.0

Population outlook (Ulster County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 175,887 people
• By 2030: 171,876 · -2.3%
• By 2040: 161,771 · -8.0%
• By 2050: 151,470 · -13.9%
• By 2075: 133,023 · -24.4%
• By 2100: 113,504 · -35.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Two or more races 12% Hispanic / Latino 6% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Iranian 4% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ulster

• 2024 margin: D (+18.7) · D 59.3% · R 40.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.9pp toward R · 2008: 23.6pp · 2024: 18.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+18.7 2020: D+20.9 2016: D+9.1 2012: D+21.9 2008: D+23.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -72.47%
• Current HPI: 327.9975
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Kingston, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+76.8% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-28 Coming Soon $389,000 HVCRMLS
• 2016-10-03 Sold (Public Records) $172,000 Public Records
• 2016-10-03 Sold (MLS) $172,000 HVCRMLS
• 2016-04-21 Listed $169,900 HVCRMLS
• 2015-11-30 Listed $169,900 HVCRMLS
• 2013-04-10 Listed $229,900 HVCRMLS
• 2011-08-11 Listed $220,000 HVCRMLS

Property tax history

+2.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,134 · +0.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.