2 bd · 1.0 ba ·
886 sqft ·
Built 1925
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 828 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,145/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$445
Tax + insurance
−$76
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$240
Net cashflow
$383/mo
Annual
$4,593/yr
Cap rate
11.70%
Cash-on-cash
19.32%
DSCR
1.86
1% rule
1.35%
Cash to close
$23,772
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $85k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $383 ($5k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $85k).
It's been on market 828 days — a 12% lower offer ($75k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $75k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $587 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 64/100 on livability (#374 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
Wilson County Schools (rural): math 38% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #119 of 178 in NC (top 67%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Vick Elementary (math 12% / reading 17%, grade F, #1,331 of 1,410 statewide, top 96%, 323 students, 99% FRL); Forest Hills Middle (math 32% / reading 38%, grade F, #286 of 475 statewide, top 61%, 670 students, 99% FRL); James Hunt High (math 67% / reading 58%, grade B-, #179 of 535 statewide, top 34%, 1,069 students, 60% FRL) — zoned schools average 86% FRL vs 58% district-wide (28 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Watch-outs: built in 1925 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.0%/yr); 261 active listings in the ZIP; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 580 units permitted in Wilson County in 2024 (168 in 5+ unit buildings).
Wilson County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
5 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $22k; list at $85k implies a 295% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 7.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 76% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 11.7% vs local median 3.4% in Wilson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 828 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1925 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
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