622 Creek Rd

Cherryville, PA 18014

$350,000C-

5 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,568 sqft · Built 1960 · Other · Pending · 37 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,500/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,835
• Tax + insurance: −$922
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$735
• Net cashflow: $8/mo
• Annual: $91/yr
• Cap rate: 7.90%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.73%
• DSCR: 1.25
• 1% rule: 1.00%
• Cash to close: $98,000

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $350k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $8 ($91/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $350k).
• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($340k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $340k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#1,483 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, cost of living B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Northampton Area SD (suburban): math 47% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #153 of 539 in PA (top 28%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Moore El Sch (math 64% / reading 74%, grade A-, #151 of 1,518 statewide, top 12%, 354 students, 30% FRL); Northampton Area Ms (math 24% / reading 46%, grade F, #322 of 512 statewide, top 64%, 1,256 students, 42% FRL); Northampton Area Hs (math 60% / reading 24%, grade F, #230 of 437 statewide, top 53%, 1,862 students, 31% FRL).
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $460/mo.
• Market conditions: 63 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 567 units permitted in Northampton County in 2024 (151 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 6 sale attempts since 13y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $192k; list at $350k implies a 82% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 4.3% in Cherryville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
• What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
• Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?