31 Walnut Ave

Dunbar, PA 15431

$37,500B

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,050 sqft · Built 1910 · SingleFamily · Pending · 22 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $964/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$197
• Tax + insurance: −$86
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$202
• Net cashflow: $479/mo
• Annual: $5,748/yr
• Cap rate: 21.62%
• Cash-on-cash: 54.74%
• DSCR: 3.44
• 1% rule: 2.57%
• Cash to close: $10,500

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $38k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $479 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($964 rent vs $38k).
• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($37k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $37k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $954 of equity ($259 loan paydown + $695 appreciation (1.9% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#1,255 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Connellsville Area SD (rural): math 23% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #440 of 539 in PA (top 82%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: built in 1910 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 11 active listings in the ZIP; 201 units permitted in Fayette County in 2024 (10 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Fayette County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 6 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (1.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $10k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1910 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.