31 Walnut Ave · Dunbar, PA 15431

$37,500

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,050 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 22 Days on market

Built 1910 3,062 sqft lot $36/sqft · 73% below area ↓ 12% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.9/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming 2-bedroom, 1-bath home with a classic feel and plenty of potential. The inviting covered front porch is perfect for relaxing, while the functional layout offers comfortable everyday living. The kitchen features traditional cabinetry and ample space, ready for your personal updates and style. The backyard provides space for outdoor seating, gardening, or entertaining. The roof was replaced approximately 10 years ago, offering added peace of mind. This home is ideal for buyers looking to add their own touches or investors seeking a solid opportunity. With its character, usable space, and great potential, this property is ready to be transformed into something special.

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Off-street parking
• Backyard space

Tags

• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• MAIN-LEVEL LAUNDRY AREA
• DETACHED GARAGE
• OFF-STREET PARKING
• BACKYARD SPACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $38k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $479 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($964 rent vs $38k).
• Recommended offer: $37k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#1,255 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Connellsville Area SD (rural): math 23% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #440 of 539 in PA (top 82%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 11 active listings in the ZIP; 201 units permitted in Fayette County in 2024 (10 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $954 of equity ($259 loan paydown + $695 appreciation (1.9% local appreciation)).
• Fayette County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (1.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $10k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($37k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1910 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $36,937 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1910 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.57% ✓
• Cap rate: 21.62%
• Cash-on-cash: 54.74%
• DSCR: 3.44
• GRM: 3.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $138,940
• List price: $37,500
• Delta: -73.01%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 7 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
37 Fayette St	0.41mi	2/1.5	1,040 (-1%)	22mo	$130,000	$125	59
502 Ferguson Rd	0.66mi	2/1.5	1,160 (+10%)	6mo	$155,000	$134	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.85% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 58.5%
• Equity multiple: 4.13×
• Total profit: $32,830
• Equity at exit: $14,495

10-year hold

• IRR: 59.1%
• Equity multiple: 8.34×
• Total profit: $77,063
• Equity at exit: $20,647

Cash invested: $10,500 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 15431

• Home prices YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 11
• Price-to-rent: 3.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $964 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$197
• Tax from tax record: −$70 /mo · $843/yr
• Insurance: −$16
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$202
• Net cashflow: $479

Break-even live

Break-even rent $358

Max offer price $37,500

Occupancy floor 45%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $9,375
• Closing costs: $1,125
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-05-13
   status Pending 683-char remark

   Show marketing remark (683 chars)

   Charming 2-bedroom, 1-bath home with a classic feel and plenty of potential. The inviting covered front porch is perfect for relaxing, while the functional layout offers comfortable everyday living. The kitchen features traditional cabinetry and ample space, ready for your personal updates and style. The backyard provides space for outdoor seating, gardening, or entertaining. The roof was replaced approximately 10 years ago, offering added peace of mind. This home is ideal for buyers looking to add their own touches or investors seeking a solid opportunity. With its character, usable space, and great potential, this property is ready to be transformed into something special.

2. 2026-04-21
   listed $37,500 Active 683-char remark

   Show marketing remark (683 chars)

   Charming 2-bedroom, 1-bath home with a classic feel and plenty of potential. The inviting covered front porch is perfect for relaxing, while the functional layout offers comfortable everyday living. The kitchen features traditional cabinetry and ample space, ready for your personal updates and style. The backyard provides space for outdoor seating, gardening, or entertaining. The roof was replaced approximately 10 years ago, offering added peace of mind. This home is ideal for buyers looking to add their own touches or investors seeking a solid opportunity. With its character, usable space, and great potential, this property is ready to be transformed into something special.

3. 2020-07-10
   historical 323-char remark

   Show marketing remark (323 chars)

   Adorable home on a very cute street, large lovely living room with gorgeous staircase, spacious dining room, galley style kitchen for the chef in the family, nice sized bedrooms, nice yard great for a garden or a game of cornhole, 2 covered porches for relaxing or just watching the raindrops dance, very low taxes as well.

4. 2019-07-11
   listed $43,900 323-char remark

   Show marketing remark (323 chars)

   Adorable home on a very cute street, large lovely living room with gorgeous staircase, spacious dining room, galley style kitchen for the chef in the family, nice sized bedrooms, nice yard great for a garden or a game of cornhole, 2 covered porches for relaxing or just watching the raindrops dance, very low taxes as well.

5. 2019-06-29
   historical
6. 2018-06-30
   listed $43,900
7. 2017-07-19
   historical
8. 2016-07-20
   listed $45,900
9. 2015-08-26
   listed $47,000
10. 2006-07-24
    soldstatus $42,500
11. 2006-07-24
    listed $42,500
12. 2006-07-24
    soldstatus $42,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $843 · $70/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $843 · $70/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,568
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,101
• − Property taxes: −$843
• − Insurance: −$188
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$925
• − Management: −$925
• − Depreciation: −$1,091
• Taxable income: $5,495
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,319
• After-tax cash flow: $4,429/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Connellsville Area SD
• NCES district ID: 4206660
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $39,315
• Composite: 25.95/100
• National rank: #7333
• State rank: #440 of 539 in PA

Livability — Dunbar

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #1255
• US rank: #15065

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Dunbar, PA
• Population (ZIP): 4,328

Population outlook (Fayette County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 127,561 people
• By 2030: 123,206 · -3.4%
• By 2040: 113,232 · -11.2%
• By 2050: 103,468 · -18.9%
• By 2075: 83,185 · -34.8%
• By 2100: 62,384 · -51.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 96% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Iranian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Fayette

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.9) · D 30.8% · R 68.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -37.5pp toward R · 2008: -0.4pp · 2024: -37.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.9 2020: R+33.5 2016: R+31.0 2012: R+8.3 2008: R+0.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.85%
• Current HPI: 153.7077
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

-11.8% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Pending — West Penn MLS
• 2026-04-21 Listed $37,500 West Penn MLS
• 2020-07-10 Delisted — West Penn MLS
• 2019-07-11 Listed $43,900 West Penn MLS
• 2019-06-29 Delisted — West Penn MLS
• 2018-06-30 Listed $43,900 West Penn MLS
• 2017-07-19 Delisted — West Penn MLS
• 2016-07-20 Listed $45,900 West Penn MLS
• 2015-08-26 Listed $47,000 West Penn MLS
• 2006-07-24 Sold (Public Records) $42,500 Public Records
• 2006-07-24 Listed $42,500 West Penn MLS
• 2006-07-24 Sold (MLS) $42,500 West Penn MLS

Property tax history

+3.5%/yr

Latest (2026): $843 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.