1788 Carson Valley Rd

Carson Valley, PA 16635

$169,900D+

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,288 sqft · Built 1916 · SingleFamily · Active · 38 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,407/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax + insurance: −$295
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$296
• Net cashflow: $-75/mo
• Annual: $-897/yr
• Cap rate: 6.23%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.21%
• DSCR: 0.99
• 1% rule: 0.83%
• Cash to close: $47,572

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $170k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-75 ($-897/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $157k (7.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $141k (17.2% below list).
• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($165k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $141k (17.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Hollidaysburg Area SD (suburban): math 45% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #129 of 539 in PA (top 24%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Charles W Longer El Sch (math 41% / reading 59%, grade D+, #645 of 1,518 statewide, top 43%, 395 students, 54% FRL); Hollidaysburg Area Jhs (math 36% / reading 61%, grade C-, #146 of 512 statewide, top 30%, 807 students, 41% FRL); Hollidaysburg Area Shs (math 67%, 793 students, 26% FRL).
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; built in 1916 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 93 active listings in the ZIP; 99 units permitted in Blair County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Blair County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1916 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.