3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,677 sqft ·
Built 1962
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 303 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,778/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,148
Tax + insurance
−$472
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$373
Net cashflow
$-216/mo
Annual
$-2,591/yr
Cap rate
5.11%
Cash-on-cash
-4.23%
DSCR
0.81
1% rule
0.81%
Cash to close
$61,320
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $219k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-216 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $181k (17.4% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $178k (18.8% below list).
It's been on market 303 days — a 12% lower offer ($193k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $178k (18.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 76/100 on livability (#99 in TX, #3,341 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools C-, crime C-, amenities C-.
Bryan ISD (urban): math 30% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #608 of 826 in TX (top 74%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.8%/yr); 278 active listings in the ZIP; 24 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 42% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,211 units permitted in Brazos County in 2024 (768 in 5+ unit buildings).
Brazos County population projected at +55% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
5 sale attempts since 12y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $41k (16%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 4.0% in Bryan — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.
This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($71k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 303 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1962 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
CashFlowRE · CFR-8EG29V46FJ60V5
· Data 3 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29