338 Bradstrom Cir Unit A-104

Lely, FL 34113

$247,500B

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,197 sqft · Built 1990 · Condo · Active · 62 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,941/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,298
• Tax + insurance: −$648
• HOA: −$589
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,038
• Net cashflow: $1,369/mo
• Annual: $16,426/yr
• Cap rate: 15.00%
• Cash-on-cash: 31.09%
• DSCR: 2.38
• 1% rule: 2.00%
• Cash to close: $69,300

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $248k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($16k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $248k).
• It's been on market 62 days — a 6% lower offer ($233k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $233k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#586 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, health & safety D, amenities F.
• Collier (suburban): math 60% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #16 of 73 in FL (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.6%/yr); 598 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,520 units permitted in Collier County in 2024 (959 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Collier County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 15y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $32k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $170k; 46% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.6% rent growth), your $69k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 4→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• At $4,941/mo this rent would consume 73% of the median local household income ($82k/yr) (locally 954% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 62 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.