280 Maple Rd

Valley Cottage, NY 10989

$650,000D

5 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,744 sqft · Built 1963 · SingleFamily · Pending · 8 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $5,000/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,409
• Tax + insurance: −$1,569
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,050
• Net cashflow: $-1,028/mo
• Annual: $-12,331/yr
• Cap rate: 4.40%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.78%
• DSCR: 0.70
• 1% rule: 0.77%
• Cash to close: $182,000

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $650k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-12k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $468k (27.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $500k (23.1% below list).
• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $468k (27.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $20k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#378 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, cost of living F, health & safety F.
• Nyack Union Free School District (suburban): math 78% / reading 78% proficiency, ranked #62 of 590 in NY (top 10%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Zoned schools: Valley Cottage School (math 84% / reading 84%, grade A+, #93 of 2,108 statewide, top 6%, 382 students, 34% FRL); Nyack Middle School (math 72% / reading 82%, grade A, #41 of 729 statewide, top 6%, 657 students, 39% FRL); Nyack Senior High School (math 92% / reading 72%, grade A, #452 of 1,100 statewide, top 44%, 877 students, 36% FRL).
• Market conditions: 68 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 429 units permitted in Rockland County in 2024 (231 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Rockland County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.4% vs local median 3.3% in Valley Cottage — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1963 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.