280 Maple Rd · Valley Cottage, NY 10989

$650,000

5 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,744 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 8 Days on market

Built 1963 0.38 ac lot $237/sqft · 22% below area Est $833k · 22% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Schools +6.9/10.0
• Cash flow +6.7/30.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Set back from the road on a picturesque street in Valley Cottage, this charming home makes a memorable first impression with its circular driveway and classic façade that evokes the timeless appeal of a Colonial. Warm, inviting, and impeccably maintained, it offers the kind of easy livability that never goes out of style. Inside, well-proportioned rooms and an effortless floor plan create a sense of comfort and flow. The sun-filled kitchen opens to generous living spaces designed for both everyday life and relaxed entertaining. With five bedrooms and three full baths, there is room to grow, work, and host with ease. The flexible ground level is ready to adapt to your lifestyle—

Key facts

• 0.38 acre lot
• Built 1963
• Listed 8 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway (no carport)
• Utilities: Orange & Rockland electric service; Public sewer; Natural gas connected; Public water connected; Sewer connected; Trash collection (public); Cable available
• Home design: Single family residence; Bi-level layout; Actual condition reported
• Construction: Built using advanced framing techniques; Asbestos present
• Exterior features: Deck; Not waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas oven; Range; Refrigerator; Stainless steel appliances
• Bedrooms: Bedrooms located on the first floor (includes a first-floor bedroom)
• Flooring: Hardwood floors; Laminate floors
• Bathrooms: Three full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: First-floor bedroom and full bath; Entrance foyer; Formal dining room; In-law floorplan; Primary bathroom; Finished full walk-out basement; Pull-down attic stairs; Deck
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room; Washer; Dryer; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $650k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-12k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $468k (27.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $500k (23.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $468k (27.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.4% vs local median 3.3% in Valley Cottage — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#378 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, cost of living F, health & safety F.
• Nyack Union Free School District (suburban): math 78% / reading 78% proficiency, ranked #62 of 590 in NY (top 10%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Zoned schools: Valley Cottage School (math 84% / reading 84%, grade A+, #93 of 2,108 statewide, top 6%, 382 students, 34% FRL); Nyack Middle School (math 72% / reading 82%, grade A, #41 of 729 statewide, top 6%, 657 students, 39% FRL); Nyack Senior High School (math 92% / reading 72%, grade A, #452 of 1,100 statewide, top 44%, 877 students, 36% FRL).
• Market conditions: 68 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 429 units permitted in Rockland County in 2024 (231 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $20k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Rockland County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $468,474 (27.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1963 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.40%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.78%
• DSCR: 0.70
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $832,782
• List price: $650,000
• Delta: -21.95%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11 Tramquill Ave	0.32mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,614 (-5%)	16mo	$840,000	$321	57
8 Mayfield St	0.47mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,622 (-4%)	18mo	$750,000	$286	49
77 Sedge Rd	0.66mi	5/3.0	2,722 (-1%)	23mo	$790,000	$290	47
91 Branchville Rd	0.39mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,480 (-10%)	17mo	$750,000	$302	46
160 Ridge	0.49mi	5/4.0	3,000 (+9%)	12mo	$1,035,000	$345	45
13 Tamar Dr	0.31mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,362 (-14%)	14mo	$800,000	$339	44
12 Flower Ln	0.50mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,584 (-6%)	21mo	$785,000	$304	43
705 Abbey Ln	0.45mi	4/1.5 (-1)	2,448 (-11%)	12mo	$575,000	$235	42
168 Ridge Rd	0.51mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,407 (-12%)	10mo	$813,500	$338	42
25 Sasson Ter	0.72mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,496 (-9%)	10mo	$799,900	$320	38
504 Ilona Ln	0.67mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,863 (+4%)	23mo	$1,050,000	$367	37
265 Old Mill Rd	0.47mi	4/4.5 (-1)	2,352 (-14%)	14mo	$1,036,000	$440	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -27.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.06×
• Total profit: $-170,401
• Equity at exit: $96,917

10-year hold

• IRR: -26.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.27×
• Total profit: $-231,137
• Equity at exit: $56,200

Cash invested: $182,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 10989

• Home prices YoY: -26.9%
• Active inventory: 68
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,000 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,409
• Tax from tax record: −$1,298 /mo · $15,577/yr
• Insurance: −$271
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,050
• Net cashflow: $-1,028

Break-even live

Break-even rent $6,301

Max offer price $468,474

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-660	-5% $-844	+0% $-1,028	+5% $-1,212	+10% $-1,396
Rent	-10% $-1,423	-5% $-1,225	+0% $-1,028	+5% $-830	+10% $-633
Rate	-1.0pp $-700	-0.5pp $-862	base $-1,028	+0.5pp $-1,196	+1.0pp $-1,367

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $162,500
• Closing costs: $19,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3 Flower Ln Valley Cottage, NY	4.0	2.5	2130	$5,000	$2.35	0d	1	0.42mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-02
   statusdays on market $650,000 Pending 8 DOM
2. 2026-05-14
   historical $650,000 1236-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $15,577 · $1,298/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $15,577 · $1,298/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $60,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$36,410
• − Property taxes: −$15,577
• − Insurance: −$3,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,800
• − Management: −$4,800
• − Depreciation: −$18,909
• Taxable loss: −$23,746
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,699
• After-tax cash flow: $-6,632/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Nyack Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3621480
• Math proficiency: 78% ▲ 8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 78% ▲ 17.00%
• Median HH income: $85,766
• Composite: 69.43/100
• National rank: #310
• State rank: #62 of 590 in NY

Livability — Valley Cottage

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #378
• US rank: #6465

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Valley Cottage, NY
• City population: 8,410
• Population (ZIP): 8,410

Population outlook (Rockland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 339,642 people
• By 2030: 345,987 · +1.9%
• By 2040: 357,178 · +5.2%
• By 2050: 362,456 · +6.7%
• By 2075: 367,281 · +8.1%
• By 2100: 328,211 · -3.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Hispanic / Latino 13% Asian 12% Two or more races 11% Black 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 7%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Scotch-Irish 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Other Indo-European 8% Spanish 4% Tagalog/Filipino 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Rockland

• 2024 margin: R (+11.8) · D 44.1% · R 55.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.7pp toward R · 2008: 5.9pp · 2024: -11.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.8 2020: D+1.7 2016: D+5.1 2012: D+6.6 2008: D+5.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -111.00%
• Current HPI: 301.2872
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-20 Listed $650,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-14 Coming Soon $650,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+4.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $15,577 · +4.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.