16646 Maryland Ave

South Holland, IL 60473

$197,900B

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,409 sqft · Built 1961 · SingleFamily · Pending · 106 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,174/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,038
• Tax + insurance: −$359
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$666
• Net cashflow: $1,111/mo
• Annual: $13,329/yr
• Cap rate: 13.03%
• Cash-on-cash: 24.06%
• DSCR: 2.07
• 1% rule: 1.60%
• Cash to close: $55,412

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $198k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $198k).
• It's been on market 106 days — a 9% lower offer ($180k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $180k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#167 in IL, #3,071 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: crime C-, amenities C-.
• Thornton Twp Hsd 205 (suburban): math 7% / reading 8% proficiency, ranked #594 of 620 in IL (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Greenwood Elem School (math 10% / reading 10%, grade F, #1,477 of 2,056 statewide, top 74%, 326 students, 0% FRL); Mckinley Jr High School (math 8% / reading 17%, grade F, #550 of 665 statewide, top 84%, 297 students, 0% FRL); Thornwood High School (math 8% / reading 9%, grade F, #584 of 693 statewide, top 85%, 1,996 students, 0% FRL).
• Market conditions: 136 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 1d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,272 units permitted in Cook County in 2024 (4,658 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 4 sale attempts since 14y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $105k; list at $198k implies a 88% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $55k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 13.0% vs local median 8.4% in South Holland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 106 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1961 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.