2 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,261 sqft ·
Built 2001
· Condo
· Active
· 111 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,986/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,652
Tax + insurance
−$377
HOA
−$704
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$627
Net cashflow
$-374/mo
Annual
$-4,490/yr
Cap rate
4.87%
Cash-on-cash
-5.09%
DSCR
0.77
1% rule
0.95%
Cash to close
$88,200
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $315k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-374 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $249k (21.0% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $299k (5.2% below list).
It's been on market 111 days — a 9% lower offer ($287k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $249k (21.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
Local home prices are declining (-1.5%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 69/100 on livability (#455 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, cost of living B; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
Collier (suburban): math 60% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #16 of 73 in FL (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Zoned schools: Collier Charter Academy (math 43% / reading 55%, grade D, #1,134 of 2,144 statewide, top 54%, 639 students, 54% FRL, charter); Barron Collier High School (math 62% / reading 68%, grade B, #76 of 667 statewide, top 11%, 1,650 students, 26% FRL).
Watch-outs: HOA is 24% of rent.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.2%/yr); 900 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,520 units permitted in Collier County in 2024 (959 in 5+ unit buildings).
Collier County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $235k; 34% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→30/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($89k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 111 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
CashFlowRE · CFR-8ETXH01AB1S124
· Data 2 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29