527-529 34TH St Unit D2

Union City, NJ 07087

$192,600C

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 480 sqft · Built — · Condo · Active · 114 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,209/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,010
• Tax + insurance: −$321
• HOA: −$457
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$464
• Net cashflow: $-43/mo
• Annual: $-512/yr
• Cap rate: 6.03%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.95%
• DSCR: 0.96
• 1% rule: 1.15%
• Cash to close: $53,928

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $193k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-43 ($-512/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $186k (3.2% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $193k).
• It's been on market 114 days — a 9% lower offer ($175k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $175k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $21k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $19k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#117 in NJ, #2,998 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A; Watch: cost of living F.
• Union City School District (suburban): math 15% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #399 of 472 in NJ (top 84%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 85% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 21% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 226 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 5,310 units permitted in Hudson County in 2024 (4,154 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hudson County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 0.9% rent growth), your $54k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 2.3% in Union City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($64k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 114 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.