11782 Bellagio Rd

Los Angeles, CA 90049

$1,950,000D

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,565 sqft · Built 1950 · SingleFamily · Active · 52 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $10,755/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$10,226
• Tax + insurance: −$1,970
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,259
• Net cashflow: $-3,699/mo
• Annual: $-44,393/yr
• Cap rate: 4.02%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.13%
• DSCR: 0.64
• 1% rule: 0.55%
• Cash to close: $546,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $1.95M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-4k ($-44k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $1.30M (33.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $1.08M (44.8% below list).
• It's been on market 52 days — a 3% lower offer ($1.89M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $1.08M (44.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $137k of equity ($13k loan paydown + $123k appreciation (6.3% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#273 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment B; Watch: health & safety C-, schools D+, crime F.
• Los Angeles Unified (urban): math 29% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #223 of 517 in CA (top 43%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.0%/yr); 283 active listings in the ZIP; 33 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 48% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 19,697 units permitted in Los Angeles County in 2024 (9,426 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Los Angeles County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 5 sale attempts since 27y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $849k; list at $1.95M implies a 130% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$219k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.0% vs local median 2.1% in Los Angeles — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $10,755/mo this rent would consume 76% of the median local household income ($171k/yr) (locally 1633% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 52 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 45% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.