11782 Bellagio Rd · Los Angeles, CA 90049

$1,950,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,565 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 52 Days on market

Built 1950 10,197 sqft lot $760/sqft · 33% below area Est $2906k · 33% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +8.2/10.0
• Cash flow +6.0/30.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.7/5.0
• 1% rule +0.5/10.0
• DSCR +0.4/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 11782 Bellagio Road, a rare opportunity to own a home in one of Bel Air's most desirable locations, conveniently close to the prestigious Moraga Estates gated community. This 3-bedroom, 2.5-bath residence offers a flexible floor plan, generous proportions, and exceptional potential. The house features a family room that opens to the living room, a separate formal dining room, and a well-appointed kitchen, creating distinct yet connected spaces ideal for both entertaining and everyday living. Large windows and thoughtful orientation enhance the sense of privacy and tranquility throughout the interiors. The primary suite, living room, and family room all provide direct access to th

Key facts

• 0.23 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1950

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property sold/offered as-is

Exterior

• Parking: Detached 2-car garage; Two additional open parking spaces (total of 4 parking spaces)
• Utilities: Standard municipal utilities
• Home design: Detached single-family home; One level; No shared/common walls
• Construction: Detached construction
• Exterior features: Has a view; No additional detached structures

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas cooktop; Oven; Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Garbage disposal
• Bedrooms: Bedrooms on one level
• Flooring: Hardwood floors; Carpeting; Other flooring
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; One half bathroom; Double vanities; Shower and tub combination; Separate shower stall; Tub
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central cooling
• Interior features: Two fireplaces; Built-in shelving
• Laundry & utility: Indoor laundry area; Washer and dryer included

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $1.95M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-4k ($-44k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $1.30M (33.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $1.08M (44.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $1.08M (44.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.0% vs local median 2.1% in Los Angeles — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#273 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment B; Watch: health & safety C-, schools D+, crime F.
• Los Angeles Unified (urban): math 29% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #223 of 517 in CA (top 43%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.0%/yr); 283 active listings in the ZIP; 33 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 48% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 19,697 units permitted in Los Angeles County in 2024 (9,426 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $10,755/mo this rent would consume 76% of the median local household income ($171k/yr) (locally 1633% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $137k of equity ($13k loan paydown + $123k appreciation (6.3% local appreciation)).
• Los Angeles County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$219k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 52 days — a 3% lower offer ($1.89M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 27y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $849k; list at $1.95M implies a 130% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $1,075,543 (44.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 52 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 45% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.55% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.02%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.13%
• DSCR: 0.64
• GRM: 15.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $2,906,074
• List price: $1,950,000
• Delta: -32.90%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1101 Casiano Rd	0.13mi	4/4.0 (+1)	2,646 (+3%)	16mo	$2,125,000	$803	67
11356 Thurston Cir	0.53mi	3/3.0	2,805 (+9%)	1mo	$1,875,000	$668	59
251 Ashdale Ave	0.55mi	4/4.0 (+1)	2,595 (+1%)	8mo	$3,195,000	$1,231	57
765 Marzella Ave	0.49mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,608 (+2%)	16mo	$4,200,000	$1,610	56
951 Casiano Rd	0.16mi	3/3.0	2,252 (-12%)	20mo	$1,800,000	$799	56
737 Halliday Ave	0.54mi	3/3.0	2,318 (-10%)	7mo	$3,400,000	$1,467	53
11994 Chalon Rd	0.51mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,828 (+10%)	5mo	$2,015,000	$713	50
12010 Chalon Rd	0.59mi	4/4.0 (+1)	2,562 (-0%)	18mo	$4,000,000	$1,561	49
1001 Kenfield Ave	0.75mi	4/4.0 (+1)	2,522 (-2%)	11mo	$3,000,000	$1,190	44
1250 N Norman Pl	0.53mi	4/4.0 (+1)	2,930 (+14%)	1mo	$3,550,000	$1,212	42
200 N Glenroy Ave	0.73mi	4/5.0 (+1)	2,595 (+1%)	12mo	$3,356,470	$1,293	42
11450 Ayrshire Rd	0.65mi	4/4.0 (+1)	2,832 (+10%)	6mo	$3,650,000	$1,289	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

6.33% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 8.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.61×
• Total profit: $333,445
• Equity at exit: $1,266,484

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.01×
• Total profit: $1,098,127
• Equity at exit: $2,332,624

Cash invested: $546,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City Los Angeles: 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+22

LARSO + JCEO 2023; relocation for substantial remodel evictions.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 90049

• Home prices YoY: 1.4%
• Rents YoY: -3.0%
• Active inventory: 283
• Price-to-rent: 15.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $10,755 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$10,226
• Tax from tax record: −$1,158 /mo · $13,892/yr
• Insurance: −$812
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,259
• Net cashflow: $-3,699

Break-even live

Break-even rent $15,438

Max offer price $1,296,488

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-2,596	-5% $-3,147	+0% $-3,699	+5% $-4,251	+10% $-4,803
Rent	-10% $-4,549	-5% $-4,124	+0% $-3,699	+5% $-3,275	+10% $-2,850
Rate	-1.0pp $-2,717	-0.5pp $-3,203	base $-3,699	+0.5pp $-4,205	+1.0pp $-4,719

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $487,500
• Closing costs: $58,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 33 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11769 Bellagio Rd Los Angeles, CA	3.0	4.0	2505	$12,500	$4.99	44d	1	0.03mi
1104 Casiano Rd Los Angeles, CA	4.0	4.0	2650	$10,450	$3.94	44d	1	0.12mi
999 Casiano Rd Los Angeles, CA	4.0	4.5	3450	$16,950	$4.91	25d	1	0.13mi
11688 W Bellagio Pl Los Angeles, CA	3.0	2.0	2000	$5,950	$2.98	3d	1	0.24mi
11807 Bel Ter Los Angeles, CA	3.0	2.5	1890	$7,250	$3.84	22d	1	0.39mi
11508 Thurston Cir Los Angeles, CA	3.0	4.0	3565	$16,000	$4.49	44d	1	0.40mi
935 Linda Flora Dr Los Angeles, CA	2.0	2.0	2038	$7,800	$3.83	44d	1	0.47mi
1135 N Norman Pl Los Angeles, CA	4.0	2.0	2113	$15,000	$7.10	25d	1	0.50mi
11215 W Sunset Blvd Los Angeles, CA	4.0	5.0	3496	$19,995	$5.72	44d	1	0.69mi
123 N Glenroy Ave Los Angeles, CA	3.0	3.5	2570	$8,800	$3.42	44d	1	0.71mi
590 N Tigertail Rd Los Angeles, CA	2.0	3.0	2228	$9,900	$4.44	8d	1	0.76mi
11244 Homedale St Los Angeles, CA	3.0	2.5	2285	$9,595	$4.20	44d	1	0.78mi
390 S Sepulveda Blvd Unit A302 Los Angeles, CA	2.0	3.0	2050	$5,095	$2.49	44d	1	1.01mi
641 Walther Way Los Angeles, CA	4.0	3.5	3542	$20,000	$5.65	44d	1	1.02mi
11740 W Sunset Blvd #22 Los Angeles, CA	2.0	3.0	1875	$6,800	$3.63	18d	1	1.09mi
343 Veteran Ave Los Angeles, CA	4.0	4.0	3131	$22,000	$7.03	11d	1	1.09mi
343 Veteran Ave Los Angeles, CA	4.0	4.0	3131	$24,995	$7.98	44d	1	1.09mi
1133 Somera Rd Los Angeles, CA	3.0	3.0	2840	$15,000	$5.28	12d	1	1.12mi
738 N Kenter Ave Los Angeles, CA	4.0	4.5	2987	$12,900	$4.32	8d	1	1.16mi
11937 W Sunset Blvd #3 Los Angeles, CA	4.0	4.5	2921	$10,950	$3.75	44d	1	1.19mi
527 S Bentley Ave Los Angeles, CA	4.0	3.5	2590	$12,895	$4.98	25d	1	1.19mi
11176 Ophir Dr Los Angeles, CA	4.0	5.0	2378	$9,995	$4.20	25d	1	1.20mi
486 Denslow Ave Los Angeles, CA	3.0	3.0	2123	$9,500	$4.47	13d	1	1.21mi
1005 Stradella Rd Los Angeles, CA	3.0	2.0	2000	$7,300	$3.65	22d	1	1.22mi
1181 Somera Rd Los Angeles, CA	4.0	4.0	2994	$15,500	$5.18	22d	1	1.26mi
221 N Bowling Green Way Los Angeles, CA	3.0	3.0	3313	$13,500	$4.07	44d	1	1.30mi
1212 Roberto Ln Los Angeles, CA	3.0	3.0	2447	$8,600	$3.51	44d	1	1.31mi
125 S Saltair Ave Los Angeles, CA	3.0	2.0	1887	$9,500	$5.03	44d	1	1.34mi
410 S Barrington Ave #205 Los Angeles, CA	3.0	2.5	1939	$5,995	$3.09	4d	1	1.35mi
11959 Foxboro Dr Los Angeles, CA	3.0	3.0	2125	$9,400	$4.42	44d	1	1.36mi
10723 Stradella Ct Los Angeles, CA	4.0	3.0	2780	$12,500	$4.50	6d	1	1.38mi
505 S Barrington Ave #106 Los Angeles, CA	3.0	3.5	1817	$14,999	$8.25	44d	1	1.42mi
1830 Old Orchard Rd Los Angeles, CA	3.0	3.0	2695	$22,500	$8.35	22d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $1,950,000 Active 52 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $1,950,000 Active 51 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $1,950,000 Active 50 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $1,950,000 Active 49 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $1,950,000 Active 47 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $1,950,000 Active 43 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $1,950,000 Active 42 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $1,950,000 Active 41 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $1,950,000 Active 38 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $1,950,000 Active 37 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $1,950,000 Active 36 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $1,950,000 Active 35 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $1,950,000 Active 34 DOM
14. 2026-05-14
    status Active 1135-char remark
15. 2026-05-12
    historical Backup Offers Accepted 1135-char remark
16. 2026-04-27
    listed $1,950,000 Active 1135-char remark
17. 2026-03-10
    price
18. 2026-01-09
    listed Active
19. 2025-10-11
    price
20. 2025-07-25
    listed Active
21. 1999-09-22
    soldstatus
22. 1999-05-25
    historical
23. 1999-04-15
    listed $795,000
24. 1989-12-21
    soldstatus $849,000
25. 1985-04-03
    soldstatus $396,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $13,892 · $1,158/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $14,820 · $1,235/mo
• Expected delta: +$928/yr (+$77/mo · 6.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 68% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥86°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $129,065
• − Mortgage interest: −$109,230
• − Property taxes: −$13,892
• − Insurance: −$9,750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$10,325
• − Management: −$10,325
• − Depreciation: −$56,727
• Taxable loss: −$81,185
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$19,484
• After-tax cash flow: $-24,908/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Los Angeles Unified
• NCES district ID: 0622710
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▲ 10.00%
• Median HH income: $50,403
• Composite: 35.67/100
• National rank: #4875
• State rank: #223 of 517 in CA

Livability — Los Angeles

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #273
• US rank: #9237

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment B Housing B- Health & safety C- User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Los Angeles, CA
• County: Los Angeles County · 9,444,647 people
• City population: 3,838,149
• Metro: Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA
• Population (ZIP): 37,122
• Household income: $170,607
• Rent vs Own: 46.6% rent · 53.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1633.0

Population outlook (Los Angeles County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 10,940,515 people
• By 2030: 11,256,481 · +2.9%
• By 2040: 11,729,929 · +7.2%
• By 2050: 11,948,407 · +9.2%
• By 2075: 11,818,114 · +8.0%
• By 2100: 10,842,928 · -0.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Two or more races 10% Asian 9% Hispanic / Latino 8% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 7% Scotch-Irish 6% Romanian 5%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Other Indo-European 8% Spanish 4% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Los Angeles

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+32.9) · D 64.8% · R 31.9% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.4pp toward R · 2008: 40.4pp · 2024: 32.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+32.9 2020: D+44.2 2016: D+48.0 2012: D+40.0 2008: D+40.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.33%
• Current HPI: 471.6282
• Rent YoY: ▼ -3.04%
• Metro: Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+392.4% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Relisted — TheMLS
• 2026-05-12 Contingent — TheMLS
• 2026-04-27 Listed $1,950,000 TheMLS
• 2026-03-10 Price Changed — TheMLS
• 2026-01-09 Listed — TheMLS
• 2025-10-11 Price Changed — TheMLS
• 2025-07-25 Listed — TheMLS
• 1999-09-22 Sold (MLS) — TheMLS
• 1999-05-25 Delisted — TheMLS
• 1999-04-15 Listed $795,000 TheMLS
• 1989-12-21 Sold (Public Records) $849,000 Public Records
• 1985-04-03 Sold (Public Records) $396,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $13,892 · +1.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.