30 Hellon Ln

Shepherd, TX 77371

$135,000C+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 924 sqft · Built 2022 · Manufactured · Active · 189 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,446/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$708
• Tax + insurance: −$128
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$304
• Net cashflow: $307/mo
• Annual: $3,683/yr
• Cap rate: 9.02%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.74%
• DSCR: 1.43
• 1% rule: 1.07%
• Cash to close: $37,800

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $135k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $307 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $135k).
• It's been on market 189 days — a 12% lower offer ($119k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $119k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $1k of equity ($933 loan paydown + $223 appreciation (0.2% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,112 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Shepherd ISD (rural): math 20% / reading 22% proficiency, ranked #770 of 826 in TX (top 93%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 146 active listings in the ZIP; 575 units permitted in San Jacinto County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• San Jacinto County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (0.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $38k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 9.0% vs local median 4.4% in Shepherd — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 189 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.