30 Hellon Ln · Shepherd, TX 77371

$135,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 924 sqft · Manufactured public records · 189 Days on market

Built 2022 Good condition 6,263 sqft lot ↓ 10% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.3/30.0
• DSCR +8.3/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.7/10.0
• Appreciation +5.1/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming Country Retreat welcome to your serene escape! This quarter-acre property boasts a cozy single wide mobile home, perfect for those seeking tranquility away from the hustle and bustle. Enjoy peaceful mornings surrounded by nature and breathtaking sunsets in the evenings. The single wide mobile home offers a functional layout with essential amenities, making it a great starter home or weekend getaway

Key facts

• Essential amenities
• Functional layout
• 6,263 sq ft lot

Tags

• QUARTER-ACRE PROPERTY
• COZY SINGLE WIDE MOBILE HOME
• FUNCTIONAL LAYOUT
• ESSENTIAL AMENITIES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $135k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $307 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $135k).
• Recommended offer: $119k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.0% vs local median 4.4% in Shepherd — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,112 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Shepherd ISD (rural): math 20% / reading 22% proficiency, ranked #770 of 826 in TX (top 93%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 146 active listings in the ZIP; 575 units permitted in San Jacinto County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $1k of equity ($933 loan paydown + $223 appreciation (0.2% local appreciation)).
• San Jacinto County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (0.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $38k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 189 days — a 12% lower offer ($119k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $118,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 189 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.02%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.74%
• DSCR: 1.43
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.17% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.44×
• Total profit: $16,612
• Equity at exit: $40,319

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.54×
• Total profit: $58,389
• Equity at exit: $49,367

Cash invested: $37,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77371

• Home prices YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 146
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,446 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$708
• Tax from tax record: −$71 /mo · $856/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$304
• Net cashflow: $307

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,058

Max offer price $135,000

Occupancy floor 74%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,750
• Closing costs: $4,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $135,000 Active 189 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $135,000 Active 188 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $135,000 Active 187 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $135,000 Active 186 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $135,000 Active 184 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $135,000 Active 183 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $135,000 Active 180 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $135,000 Active 179 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $135,000 Active 178 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $135,000 Active 175 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $135,000 Active 174 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $135,000 Active 173 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $135,000 Active 172 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $135,000 Active 171 DOM
15. 2025-12-11
    listed $135,000 Active 411-char remark

    Show marketing remark (411 chars)

    Charming Country Retreat welcome to your serene escape! This quarter-acre property boasts a cozy single wide mobile home, perfect for those seeking tranquility away from the hustle and bustle. Enjoy peaceful mornings surrounded by nature and breathtaking sunsets in the evenings. The single wide mobile home offers a functional layout with essential amenities, making it a great starter home or weekend getaway

16. 2025-09-30
    historical
17. 2025-04-05
    listed $150,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $856 · $71/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,470 · $206/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,615/yr (+$135/mo · 188.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,354
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,562
• − Property taxes: −$856
• − Insurance: −$675
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,388
• − Management: −$1,388
• − Depreciation: −$3,927
• Taxable income: $1,557
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$374
• After-tax cash flow: $3,309/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 None rehab

This single-wide mobile home is in good condition with minimal repairs needed. It offers a serene and functional living space, perfect for a quiet retreat or a starter home.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances the home's aesthetic appeal and can attract more buyers or renters.
• Both Interior updates (paint, minor repairs) — Improves the home's appearance and can increase its value for both resale and rental.
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances the home's aesthetic appeal and can attract more buyers or renters.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances the home's aesthetic appeal and can attract more buyers or renters. ↑
• Both Interior updates (paint, minor repairs) — Improves the home's appearance and can increase its value for both resale and rental. ↑
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances the home's aesthetic appeal and can attract more buyers or renters. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Shepherd ISD
• NCES district ID: 4840020
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 22% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $39,857
• Composite: 17.77/100
• National rank: #9016
• State rank: #770 of 826 in TX

Livability — Shepherd

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #1112
• US rank: #19716

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 7,548

Population outlook (San Jacinto County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 29,069 people
• By 2030: 29,750 · +2.3%
• By 2040: 30,714 · +5.7%
• By 2050: 31,010 · +6.7%
• By 2075: 31,616 · +8.8%
• By 2100: 29,874 · +2.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 26% Black 12% Two or more races 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 22%

Political lean MEDSL · San Jacinto

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+65.3) · D 17.0% · R 82.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -27.0pp toward R · 2008: -38.3pp · 2024: -65.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+65.3 2020: R+61.9 2016: R+58.4 2012: R+48.9 2008: R+38.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.17%
• Current HPI: 201.6618
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-10.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-11 Listed $135,000 HARMLS
• 2025-09-30 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-04-05 Listed $150,000 HARMLS