3 Beaver Creek Dr

Vernon, NJ 07462

$172,000C+

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 648 sqft · Built 1986 · Other · Active · 8 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,100/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$902
• Tax + insurance: −$287
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$441
• Net cashflow: $470/mo
• Annual: $5,644/yr
• Cap rate: 9.57%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.72%
• DSCR: 1.52
• 1% rule: 1.22%
• Cash to close: $48,160

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $172k. Condition is rated fair.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $470 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $172k).
• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Vernon Township School District (rural): math 18% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #294 of 472 in NJ (top 62%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 13% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 25 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 184 units permitted in Sussex County in 2024 (18 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Sussex County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $48k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Major: roof — The satellite image shows dark patches indicating potential leaks.
• Major: siding — The siding shows signs of wear and discoloration.
• Major: foundation — The satellite image shows a dark area near the foundation, which could indicate water damage or poor drainage. Further investigation is needed to confirm this.