3 Beaver Creek Dr · Vernon, NJ 07462

$172,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 648 sqft · Other · 8 Days on market

Built 1986 Fair condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.8/30.0
• DSCR +9.2/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.2/10.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +1.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to your perfect escape in the heart of the beautiful Great Gorge Valley. This beautifully maintained first-floor condominium offers the ideal blend of comfort, convenience, and year-round resort-style living in scenic Vernon Township. Featuring a recently renovated bathroom and an easy-access first-floor layout, this unit includes a private rear patio with gated entry, making parking and moving in effortless & acirc; & euro; & rdquo; with absolutely no stairs required. Whether you & acirc; & euro; & trade; re searching for a primary residence, weekend retreat, or investment property, this home is move-in ready and designed for easy living. Located just minut

Key facts

• Patrolling security
• First floor layout
• Gated entry

Tags

• FIRST FLOOR LAYOUT
• PRIVATE REAR PATIO
• GATED ENTRY
• RECENTLY RENOVATED BATHROOM
• WALKABLE ACCESS TO AMENITIES
• PATROLLING SECURITY

Property features AI

Exterior

• Home design: Built in 1986
• Construction: Original construction completed in 1986
• Exterior features: Located in the Vernon Center subdivision

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $172k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $470 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $172k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Vernon Township School District (rural): math 18% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #294 of 472 in NJ (top 62%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 13% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 25 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 184 units permitted in Sussex County in 2024 (18 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sussex County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $48k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $172,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.22% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.57%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.72%
• DSCR: 1.52
• GRM: 6.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.04×
• Total profit: $2,117
• Equity at exit: $25,646

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.84×
• Total profit: $40,546
• Equity at exit: $14,871

Cash invested: $48,160 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 07462

• Home prices YoY: -2.4%
• Active inventory: 25
• Price-to-rent: 6.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,100 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$902
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$215 /mo · $2,580/yr
• Insurance: −$72
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$441
• Net cashflow: $470

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,505

Max offer price $172,000

Occupancy floor 73%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,000
• Closing costs: $5,160
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12 Stonehill Dr #1 Vernon, NJ	2.0	1.0	748	$2,100	$2.81	43d	1	0.16mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $172,000 Active 8 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $172,000 Active 7 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $172,000 Active 6 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $172,000 Active 5 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $172,000 Active 3 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   remarks 675-char remark
7. 2026-06-13
   listed $172,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 13% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,200
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,635
• − Property taxes: −$2,580
• − Insurance: −$860
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,016
• − Management: −$2,016
• − Depreciation: −$5,004
• Taxable income: $3,090
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$742
• After-tax cash flow: $4,903/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This property requires extensive repairs to the roof, siding, and foundation, as well as a new HVAC system. While the home is move-in ready, it needs significant work to improve its condition and value.

Repairs flagged

• Major roof — The satellite image shows dark patches indicating potential leaks.
• Major siding — The siding shows signs of wear and discoloration.
• Major foundation — The satellite image shows a dark area near the foundation, which could indicate water damage or poor drainage. Further investigation is needed to confirm this.

Value-add opportunities

• Both repair roof — Repairing the roof would improve the home's appearance and functionality, making it more attractive to buyers and renters.
• Both repair siding — Repairing the siding would improve the home's appearance and functionality, making it more attractive to buyers and renters.
• Both repair foundation — Repairing the foundation would improve the home's structural integrity and make it more attractive to buyers and renters.
• Both replace HVAC system — Replacing the HVAC system would improve the home's comfort and energy efficiency, making it more attractive to buyers and renters.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
roof · The satellite image shows dark patches indicating potential leaks.	Major	$15,000–50,000
siding · The siding shows signs of wear and discoloration.	Major	$15,000–50,000
foundation · The satellite image shows a dark area near the foundation, which could indicate water damage or poor drainage. Further investigation is needed to confirm this.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 3 items		$45,000–150,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both repair roof — Repairing the roof would improve the home's appearance and functionality, making it more attractive to buyers and renters. ↑
• Both repair siding — Repairing the siding would improve the home's appearance and functionality, making it more attractive to buyers and renters. ↑
• Both repair foundation — Repairing the foundation would improve the home's structural integrity and make it more attractive to buyers and renters. ↑
• Both replace HVAC system — Replacing the HVAC system would improve the home's comfort and energy efficiency, making it more attractive to buyers and renters. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Vernon Township School District
• NCES district ID: 3416710
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -26.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $84,455
• Composite: 30.63/100
• National rank: #6188
• State rank: #294 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Vernon

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Vernon Center, NJ
• Population (ZIP): 6,892

Population outlook (Sussex County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 133,413 people
• By 2030: 127,324 · -4.6%
• By 2040: 113,987 · -14.6%
• By 2050: 100,391 · -24.8%
• By 2075: 78,063 · -41.5%
• By 2100: 62,346 · -53.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 7% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 7% Dominican 2% Salvadoran 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Iranian 7% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sussex

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.9) · D 36.6% · R 61.6% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.2pp toward R · 2008: -20.7pp · 2024: -24.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.9 2020: R+19.5 2016: R+30.3 2012: R+22.4 2008: R+20.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -7.96%
• Current HPI: 319.3757
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Listed $172,000 FSBO.com