1005 Crimson Creek Dr

Lexington-Fayette, KY 40509

$315,000D+

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,526 sqft · Built 1996 · SingleFamily · Pending · 11 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,636/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,652
• Tax + insurance: −$323
• HOA: −$19
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$554
• Net cashflow: $89/mo
• Annual: $1,065/yr
• Cap rate: 6.63%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.21%
• DSCR: 1.05
• 1% rule: 0.84%
• Cash to close: $88,200

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $315k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $89 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $264k (16.3% below list).
• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $264k (16.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Fayette County (urban): math 35% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #27 of 165 in KY (top 16%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Athens-Chilesburg Elementary (math 65% / reading 70%, grade B+, #12 of 676 statewide, top 2%, 533 students, 17% FRL); Edythe Jones Hayes Middle School (math 47% / reading 60%, grade C+, #13 of 217 statewide, top 6%, 1,081 students, 37% FRL); Frederick Douglass High School (math 36% / reading 42%, grade F, #51 of 254 statewide, top 21%, 1,667 students, 43% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 53% at this address vs 40% district-wide (+13 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Fayette County average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.2%/yr); 280 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,036 units permitted in Fayette County in 2024 (542 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Fayette County population projected at +35% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 26y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $205k; list at $315k implies a 54% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 3.8% in Lexington-Fayette — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($95k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.