6879 W Tadpole Cir

Meadow Lakes, AK 99623

$1,395,000D+

100 bd · 100.0 ba · 6,730 sqft · Built 2026 · MultiFamily · Active · 42 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $14,234/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$7,316
• Tax + insurance: −$2,325
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,989
• Net cashflow: $1,604/mo
• Annual: $19,252/yr
• Cap rate: 7.67%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.93%
• DSCR: 1.22
• 1% rule: 1.02%
• Cash to close: $390,600

Investor read

• This is a 10 × 1-bed/1-bath units multifamily listed at $1.40M. Condition is rated excellent.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($19k/yr) — positive. Per door: $160/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($14k rent vs $1.40M).
• It's been on market 42 days — a 3% lower offer ($1.35M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $1.35M (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $10k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $42k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 53/100 on livability (#187 in AK) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Matanuska-Susitna Borough School District (town): math 42% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #5 of 21 in AK (top 24%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Meadow Lakes Elementary (math 32% / reading 22%, grade F, #116 of 156 statewide, top 77%, 297 students, 50% FRL); Houston Middle School (329 students, 0% FRL); Houston High School (math 22% / reading 31%, grade F, #41 of 61 statewide, top 67%, 358 students, 57% FRL) — zoned schools at 36% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 27% at this address vs 46% district-wide (-19 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Matanuska-Susitna Borough School District average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.2%/yr); 414 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 91 units permitted in Matanuska-Susitna Borough in 2024 (25 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Matanuska-Susitna County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Cap rate 7.7% vs local median 3.2% in Meadow Lakes — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $14,234/mo this rent would consume 192% of the median local household income ($89k/yr) (locally 285% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 42 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.