6879 W Tadpole Cir · Meadow Lakes, AK 99623

$1,395,000

100 bd · 100.0 ba · 6,730 sqft · MultiFamily · 42 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition 0.92 ac lot $207/sqft · 19% above area Est $1167k · 19% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.6/30.0
• DSCR +6.2/10.0
• 1% rule +5.2/10.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 10 units. estimate disagrees with records

Listing remarks

Looking to invest in your future and receive passive income for years to come. This newly designed 10 unit plan is for you. Each unit has 1 bedroom, 1 full bath with in-unit laundry. Enjoy 5-star in-floor radiant heat, beautiful solid wood cabinets, quartz counter tops and spacious open-concept living area with LVP throughout. All units individually metered.

Key facts

• 0.92 acre lot
• 10 parking spots
• Built 2026

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: 10 open parking spaces; No attached garage or carport
• Utilities: Septic tank sewer
• Home design: Multi-Family property; New construction: No; Living area approximately 6,730
• Construction: Wood frame construction; Block foundation; Built in 2026
• Exterior features: Shingle (asphalt) roof; Gravel road access

Interior

• Bedrooms: 10 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 10 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Multi-family layout

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 10 × 1-bed/1-bath units multifamily listed at $1.40M. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($19k/yr) — positive. Per door: $160/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($14k rent vs $1.40M).
• Recommended offer: $1.35M (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.7% vs local median 3.2% in Meadow Lakes — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 53/100 on livability (#187 in AK) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Matanuska-Susitna Borough School District (town): math 42% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #5 of 21 in AK (top 24%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Meadow Lakes Elementary (math 32% / reading 22%, grade F, #116 of 156 statewide, top 77%, 297 students, 50% FRL); Houston Middle School (329 students, 0% FRL); Houston High School (math 22% / reading 31%, grade F, #41 of 61 statewide, top 67%, 358 students, 57% FRL) — zoned schools at 36% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 27% at this address vs 46% district-wide (-19 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Matanuska-Susitna Borough School District average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.2%/yr); 414 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 91 units permitted in Matanuska-Susitna Borough in 2024 (25 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $14,234/mo this rent would consume 192% of the median local household income ($89k/yr) (locally 285% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $10k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $42k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Matanuska-Susitna County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 42 days — a 3% lower offer ($1.35M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $1,353,150 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 42 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
3. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.67%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.93%
• DSCR: 1.22
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $1,167,444
• List price: $1,395,000
• Delta: 19.49%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.17% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.69×
• Total profit: $-121,216
• Equity at exit: $207,999

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.09×
• Total profit: $36,936
• Equity at exit: $120,614

Cash invested: $390,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alaska: 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

30-day notice; security deposits capped; courts moderate-paced.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 99623

• Home prices YoY: -19.6%
• Rents YoY: 3.2%
• Active inventory: 414
• Price-to-rent: 81.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $14,234 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$7,316
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$1,744 /mo · $20,925/yr
• Insurance: −$581
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,989
• Net cashflow: $1,604

Break-even live

Break-even rent $12,203

Max offer price $1,395,000

Occupancy floor 84%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $2,568	-5% $2,086	+0% $1,604	+5% $1,122	+10% $640
Rent	-10% $480	-5% $1,042	+0% $1,604	+5% $2,167	+10% $2,729
Rate	-1.0pp $2,307	-0.5pp $1,959	base $1,604	+0.5pp $1,243	+1.0pp $875

10-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 10× units	1	1	$14,230
Total (10 units)			$14,234

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $348,750
• Closing costs: $41,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $1,395,000 Active 42 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $1,395,000 Active 41 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $1,395,000 Active 40 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $1,395,000 Active 39 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $1,395,000 Active 37 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $1,395,000 Active 36 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $1,395,000 Active 34 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $1,395,000 Active 33 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $1,395,000 Active 32 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $1,395,000 Active 31 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $1,395,000 Active 27 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $1,395,000 Active 26 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $1,395,000 Active 25 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $1,395,000 Active 24 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $1,395,000 Active 23 DOM
16. 2026-05-07
    listed $1,395,000 Active 360-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $170,808
• − Mortgage interest: −$78,142
• − Property taxes: −$20,925
• − Insurance: −$6,975
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$13,665
• − Management: −$13,665
• − Depreciation: −$40,582
• Taxable loss: −$3,145
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$755
• After-tax cash flow: $20,007/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 4 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This newly designed multi-family property is in excellent condition with no visible repairs or maintenance needed. It offers high ROI with potential for both resale and rental value through minor updates and landscaping improvements.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Both Interior updates — Modernizes the interior and enhances rental appeal

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both Interior updates — Modernizes the interior and enhances rental appeal ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Matanuska-Susitna Borough School District
• NCES district ID: 0200510
• Math proficiency: 42% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $70,325
• Composite: 41.38/100
• National rank: #3484
• State rank: #5 of 21 in AK

Livability — Meadow Lakes

• Score: 53/100
• State rank: #187
• US rank: #24629

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Meadow Lakes, AK
• County: Matanuska Susitna Borough · 100,174 people
• City population: 23,424
• Metro: Anchorage, AK
• Population (ZIP): 23,424
• Household income: $88,799
• Rent vs Own: 18.0% rent · 82.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 285.0

Population outlook (Matanuska-Susitna County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 126,730 people
• By 2030: 139,641 · +10.2%
• By 2040: 165,122 · +30.3%
• By 2050: 189,697 · +49.7%
• By 2075: 249,959 · +97.2%
• By 2100: 288,077 · +127.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Two or more races 10% Native American 8% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 3% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 3% Romanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Matanuska-Susitna

• 2016 margin: R (+15.2) · D 37.7% · R 52.9% · Other 9.4%
• All cycles: 2016: R+15.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -48.82%
• Current HPI: 200.2242
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.17%
• Metro: Anchorage, AK
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Listed $1,395,000 AKMLS