1310 NW Valley Woods Ct

Grain Valley, MO 64029

$535,000C

8 bd · 4.0 ba · 3,600 sqft · Built 1987 · MultiFamily · Active · 23 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $5,790/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,806
• Tax + insurance: −$892
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,216
• Net cashflow: $877/mo
• Annual: $10,522/yr
• Cap rate: 8.26%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.02%
• DSCR: 1.31
• 1% rule: 1.08%
• Cash to close: $149,800

Investor read

• This is a 4 × 2-bed/1.0-bath units multifamily listed at $535k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $877 ($11k/yr) — positive. Per door: $219/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($6k rent vs $535k).
• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($527k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $527k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $16k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#41 in MO, #3,383 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Grain Valley R-V (suburban): math 45% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #30 of 324 in MO (top 9%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Grain Valley High (math 25% / reading 68%, grade D-, #169 of 521 statewide, top 32%, 1,438 students, 22% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.0%/yr); 109 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 4,002 units permitted in Jackson County in 2024 (2,271 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Jackson County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 5 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 7.0% rent growth), your $150k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 8.3% vs local median 3.6% in Grain Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $5,790/mo this rent would consume 76% of the median local household income ($92k/yr) (locally 218% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.