225 Maplemere Dr

Bowling Green, KY 42103

$299,000D-

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,026 sqft · Built 1957 · SingleFamily · Active · 73 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,012/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,568
• Tax + insurance: −$339
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$422
• Net cashflow: $-318/mo
• Annual: $-3,816/yr
• Cap rate: 5.02%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.56%
• DSCR: 0.80
• 1% rule: 0.67%
• Cash to close: $83,720

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $299k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-318 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $243k (18.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $201k (32.7% below list).
• It's been on market 73 days — a 6% lower offer ($281k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $201k (32.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#255 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Warren County (rural): math 30% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #48 of 165 in KY (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Cumberland Trace Elementary (math 43% / reading 54%, grade D, #110 of 676 statewide, top 17%, 603 students, 52% FRL); Drakes Creek Middle School (math 48% / reading 61%, grade B-, #12 of 217 statewide, top 5%, 729 students, 54% FRL); Greenwood High School (math 39% / reading 47%, grade F, #30 of 254 statewide, top 12%, 1,370 students, 47% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 49% at this address vs 36% district-wide (+12 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Warren County average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Watch-outs: built in 1957 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 290 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 60% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 2,286 units permitted in Warren County in 2024 (1,410 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Warren County population projected at +41% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 11 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $190k; list at $299k implies a 57% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 3.0% in Bowling Green — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 73 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 33% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1957 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.