556 Private Road 3551

Valley Mills, TX 76689

$120,000D+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,568 sqft · Built 2000 · Manufactured · Pending · 12 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,006/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax + insurance: −$157
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$211
• Net cashflow: $8/mo
• Annual: $100/yr
• Cap rate: 6.38%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.30%
• DSCR: 1.01
• 1% rule: 0.84%
• Cash to close: $33,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $120k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $8 ($100/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $101k (16.2% below list).
• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $101k (16.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $830 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#542 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Valley Mills ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #308 of 826 in TX (top 37%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Valley Mills El (math 47% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,155 of 4,322 statewide, top 29%, 320 students, 57% FRL); Valley Mills J H (math 37% / reading 37%, grade F, #756 of 1,662 statewide, top 47%, 141 students, 57% FRL); Valley Mills H S (math 54% / reading 54%, grade C-, #379 of 1,632 statewide, top 26%, 204 students, 47% FRL) — zoned schools at 54% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 54 active listings in the ZIP; 15 units permitted in Bosque County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Bosque County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 74% chance of damaging wind over 30y; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 1.7% in Valley Mills — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.