556 Private Road 3551 · Valley Mills, TX 76689

$120,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,568 sqft · Manufactured public records · 12 Days on market

Built 2000 5.13 ac lot Est $176k · 32% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.5/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.9/10.0
• 1% rule +5.9/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Over 5 acres in China Spring is waiting for you at 556 Private Road 3551! Lots of room to roam and to make this place your own. Come take a look today.

Key facts

• 5 acres
• 5.13 acre lot
• Built 2000

Tags

• 5 ACRES

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property sits on about 5.13 acres; Will not subdivide; Parcel/Tax ID: R32317
• Financial info: Treat as clear loan type; No second mortgage
• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway parking; No garage or carport
• Utilities: Co-op electric service; Co-op water service; Septic sewer; Not in a municipal utility district
• Home design: Residential mobile home; One story; Property is not attached; Multiple parcel property
• Construction: Frame construction; Built in 2000
• Exterior features: Private road access; Septic system; Co-op water; Co-op electric

Interior

• Kitchen: No appliances included
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms; Primary bedroom on main level (12 x 12)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: One-level layout; Other interior features; One living area; One dining area; Total room count: 2
• Laundry & utility: No specific laundry appliances listed

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $246 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $120k).
• Cap rate 8.7% vs local median 1.6% in Valley Mills — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#542 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Valley Mills ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #308 of 826 in TX (top 37%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Valley Mills El (math 47% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,155 of 4,322 statewide, top 29%, 320 students, 57% FRL); Valley Mills J H (math 37% / reading 37%, grade F, #756 of 1,662 statewide, top 47%, 141 students, 57% FRL); Valley Mills H S (math 54% / reading 54%, grade C-, #379 of 1,632 statewide, top 26%, 204 students, 47% FRL) — zoned schools at 54% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 53 active listings in the ZIP; 15 units permitted in Bosque County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $830 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bosque County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 74% chance of damaging wind over 30y; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $120,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.09% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.75%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.77%
• DSCR: 1.39
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $175,616
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
476 Private Road 3556	0.41mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,568 (0%)	22mo	$175,000	$112	58

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.89×
• Total profit: $-3,804
• Equity at exit: $17,892

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.50×
• Total profit: $16,810
• Equity at exit: $10,375

Cash invested: $33,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76689

• Home prices YoY: -22.1%
• Active inventory: 53
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,306 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$107 /mo · $1,282/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$274
• Net cashflow: $246

Break-even live

Break-even rent $995

Max offer price $120,000

Occupancy floor 76%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $314	-5% $280	+0% $246	+5% $212	+10% $178
Rent	-10% $143	-5% $194	+0% $246	+5% $297	+10% $349
Rate	-1.0pp $306	-0.5pp $276	base $246	+0.5pp $215	+1.0pp $183

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,000
• Closing costs: $3,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-09
   status Pending 151-char remark
2. 2026-04-24
   listed $120,000 Active 151-char remark
3. 2007-10-02
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,282 · $107/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,196 · $183/mo
• Expected delta: +$914/yr (+$76/mo · 71.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 74% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,673
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,722
• − Property taxes: −$1,282
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,254
• − Management: −$1,254
• − Depreciation: −$3,491
• Taxable income: $1,071
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$257
• After-tax cash flow: $2,691/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Valley Mills ISD
• NCES district ID: 4843760
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $47,485
• Composite: 36.74/100
• National rank: #4589
• State rank: #308 of 826 in TX

Livability — Valley Mills

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #542
• US rank: #10546

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 4,421

Population outlook (Bosque County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 17,405 people
• By 2030: 16,953 · -2.6%
• By 2040: 16,014 · -8.0%
• By 2050: 15,116 · -13.2%
• By 2075: 13,468 · -22.6%
• By 2100: 11,147 · -36.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Hispanic / Latino 18% Two or more races 14%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 17%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 9% Portuguese 3% Scottish 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 12%

Political lean MEDSL · Bosque

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+67.3) · D 15.9% · R 83.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.5pp toward R · 2008: -51.9pp · 2024: -67.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+67.3 2020: R+64.7 2016: R+64.7 2012: R+61.4 2008: R+51.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -68.78%
• Current HPI: 242.4738
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-09 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-04-24 Listed $120,000 NTREIS
• 2007-10-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+30.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,282 · -2.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.