1017 Summer Haven Ln

Schertz, TX 78154

$200,000D+

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,172 sqft · Built 1996 · SingleFamily · Pending · 1 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,991/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax + insurance: −$558
• HOA: −$33
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$418
• Net cashflow: $-66/mo
• Annual: $-796/yr
• Cap rate: 5.89%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.42%
• DSCR: 0.94
• 1% rule: 1.00%
• Cash to close: $56,000

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-66 ($-796/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $188k (5.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $199k (0.4% below list).
• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $188k (5.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#198 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Schertz-Cibolo-U City ISD (suburban): math 49% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #152 of 826 in TX (top 18%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Watts El (math 44% / reading 44%, grade F, #1,243 of 4,322 statewide, top 29%, 593 students, 44% FRL); Samuel Clemens H S (math 45% / reading 60%, grade C-, #444 of 1,632 statewide, top 27%, 2,544 students, 30% FRL).
• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.8% of price.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.9%/yr); 495 active listings in the ZIP; 29 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,064 units permitted in Guadalupe County in 2024 (133 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Guadalupe County population projected at +61% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 2.8% in Schertz — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.