2468 Valley Center Rd

Monterey, VA 24465

$229,900D-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,750 sqft · Built 1991 · Manufactured · Active · 47 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,222/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,206
• Tax + insurance: −$229
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$257
• Net cashflow: $-469/mo
• Annual: $-5,629/yr
• Cap rate: 4.19%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.51%
• DSCR: 0.67
• 1% rule: 0.53%
• Cash to close: $64,372

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $230k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-469 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $147k (36.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $122k (46.9% below list).
• It's been on market 47 days — a 3% lower offer ($223k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $122k (46.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-1.1%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#274 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Highland County Public School District (rural): math 85% / reading 90% proficiency, ranked #19 of 134 in VA (top 14%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Zoned schools: Highland Elementary (math 54% / reading 74%, grade B, #416 of 1,108 statewide, top 41%, 97 students, 44% FRL); Highland High (math 64% / reading 95%, grade A, #62 of 319 statewide, top 19%, 103 students, 30% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 72% at this address vs 88% district-wide (-15 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Highland County Public School District average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: 32 active listings in the ZIP; 12 units permitted in Highland County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Highland County population projected at -44% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Current owner paid $89k; list at $230k implies a 158% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 47 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 47% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.