2468 Valley Center Rd · Monterey, VA 24465

$229,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,750 sqft · Manufactured public records · 46 Days on market

Built 1991 20 ac lot $131/sqft · 52% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +7.4/10.0
• Cash flow +6.4/30.0
• Appreciation +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +0.7/10.0
• 1% rule +0.3/10.0

Listing remarks

Nestled among the mountains and overlooking beautiful long-range views, this double wide home offers the peaceful country lifestyle so many are searching for. Situated on approximately 19.6 acres, the property provides plenty of room to explore, garden, hunt, ride, or simply enjoy the outdoors in your own private playground. The home features a new roof, freshly stained decks, and a setting designed for relaxing evenings while taking in the mountain scenery. A very good spring water source supplies the property, adding to the self-sufficient country appeal, while the root cellar offers excellent storage and a touch of old-fashioned practicality.

Key facts

• Long-range views
• Root cellar
• Spring water source

Tags

• LONG-RANGE VIEWS
• 19.6 ACRES
• NEW ROOF
• FRESHLY STAINED DECKS
• SPRING WATER SOURCE
• ROOT CELLAR

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Approximately 19.6-acre lot

Exterior

• Utilities: Has heating; Has cooling
• Home design: Residential property; Built in 1991
• Exterior features: Side porch

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms, all on the main level
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms, both on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump (electric) for heating and cooling
• Interior features: 7 total rooms; Crawl space basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $230k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-469 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $147k (36.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $122k (46.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $122k (46.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#274 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Highland County Public School District (rural): math 85% / reading 90% proficiency, ranked #19 of 134 in VA (top 14%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Zoned schools: Highland Elementary (math 54% / reading 74%, grade B, #416 of 1,108 statewide, top 41%, 97 students, 44% FRL); Highland High (math 64% / reading 95%, grade A, #62 of 319 statewide, top 19%, 103 students, 30% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 72% at this address vs 88% district-wide (-15 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Highland County Public School District average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 32 active listings in the ZIP; 12 units permitted in Highland County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.1%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Highland County population projected at -44% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 46 days — a 3% lower offer ($223k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $89k; list at $230k implies a 158% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $122,176 (46.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 46 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 47% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.53% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.19%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.51%
• DSCR: 0.67
• GRM: 15.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $477,827
• List price: $229,900
• Delta: -51.89%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.14% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.24×
• Total profit: $-48,768
• Equity at exit: $53,895

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.00×
• Total profit: $-64,064
• Equity at exit: $55,242

Cash invested: $64,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 24465

• Home prices YoY: -0.7%
• Active inventory: 32
• Price-to-rent: 15.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,222 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,206
• Tax from tax record: −$66 /mo · $797/yr
• Insurance: −$96
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$257
• Net cashflow: $-469

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,816

Max offer price $147,030

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-339	-5% $-404	+0% $-469	+5% $-534	+10% $-599
Rent	-10% $-566	-5% $-517	+0% $-469	+5% $-421	+10% $-373
Rate	-1.0pp $-353	-0.5pp $-411	base $-469	+0.5pp $-529	+1.0pp $-589

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,475
• Closing costs: $6,897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $229,900 Active 46 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $229,900 Active 45 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $229,900 Active 43 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $229,900 Active 42 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $229,900 Active 41 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $229,900 Active 40 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $229,900 Active 39 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $229,900 Active 38 DOM
9. 2026-06-12
   days on market $229,900 Active 37 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $229,900 Active 34 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $229,900 Active 33 DOM
12. 2026-06-08
    days on market $229,900 Active 32 DOM
13. 2026-06-07
    days on market $229,900 Active 31 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $229,900 Active 28 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $229,900 Active 27 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $229,900 Active 26 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $229,900 Active 25 DOM
18. 2026-05-06
    listed $229,900 Active 653-char remark
19. 2021-06-09
    soldstatus $89,100

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $797 · $66/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,885 · $157/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,088/yr (+$91/mo · 136.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 8 d/yr ≥89°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,661
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,878
• − Property taxes: −$797
• − Insurance: −$1,947
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,173
• − Management: −$1,173
• − Depreciation: −$6,688
• Taxable loss: −$9,995
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,399
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,231/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Highland County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5101950
• Math proficiency: 85% —
• Reading proficiency: 90% —
• Median HH income: $44,893
• Composite: 73.87/100
• National rank: #306
• State rank: #19 of 134 in VA

Livability — Monterey

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #274
• US rank: #9830

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C Housing B+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,287

Population outlook (Highland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,952 people
• By 2030: 1,782 · -8.7%
• By 2040: 1,413 · -27.6%
• By 2050: 1,098 · -43.8%
• By 2075: 773 · -60.4%
• By 2100: 608 · -68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Asian 5% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 2% Lithuanian 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Tagalog/Filipino 1% Spanish 1% Korean 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Highland

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+44.4) · D 27.2% · R 71.6% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.5pp toward R · 2008: -21.9pp · 2024: -44.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+44.4 2020: R+44.0 2016: R+42.2 2012: R+33.0 2008: R+21.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.14%
• Current HPI: 158.8473
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+158.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Listed $229,900 MLSRV
• 2021-06-09 Sold (Public Records) $89,100 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.3%/yr

Latest (2026): $797 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.