23515 Lyons

Santa Clarita, CA 91355

$310,000F

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 768 sqft · Built 1969 · Townhouse · Active · 1 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,251/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,626
• Tax + insurance: −$517
• HOA: −$595
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$473
• Net cashflow: $-959/mo
• Annual: $-11,510/yr
• Cap rate: 2.58%
• Cash-on-cash: -13.26%
• DSCR: 0.41
• 1% rule: 0.73%
• Cash to close: $86,800

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath townhouse listed at $310k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-959 ($-12k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $171k (44.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $225k (27.4% below list).
• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $171k (44.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#229 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A, crime A-; Watch: amenities D+, cost of living F, health & safety F.
• William S. Hart Union High (suburban): math 52% / reading 72% proficiency, ranked #155 of 1,400 in CA (top 11%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Placerita Junior High (888 students, 44% FRL); William S. Hart High (2,034 students, 42% FRL) — zoned schools average 43% FRL vs 18% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 26% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 185 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 52d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 60% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 19,697 units permitted in Los Angeles County in 2024 (9,426 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Los Angeles County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 11 sale attempts since 18y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $140k; list at $310k implies a 122% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.