6007 Ceniza Dr

Olivarez, TX 78599

$164,000D

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,600 sqft · Built 1998 · SingleFamily · Active · 93 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,350/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$860
• Tax + insurance: −$316
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$284
• Net cashflow: $-110/mo
• Annual: $-1,316/yr
• Cap rate: 5.98%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.13%
• DSCR: 0.95
• 1% rule: 0.82%
• Cash to close: $45,920

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $164k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-110 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $145k (11.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $135k (17.7% below list).
• It's been on market 93 days — a 9% lower offer ($149k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $135k (17.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 51/100 on livability (#1,480 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Weslaco ISD (suburban): math 23% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #705 of 826 in TX (top 85%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Raul A Gonzalez Jr El (math 17% / reading 32%, grade F, #3,052 of 4,322 statewide, top 74%, 618 students, 92% FRL); Mary Hoge Middle (math 22% / reading 42%, grade F, #971 of 1,662 statewide, top 60%, 938 students, 93% FRL); Weslaco East H S (math 24% / reading 26%, grade F, #1,250 of 1,632 statewide, top 77%, 2,004 students, 86% FRL) — zoned schools average 90% FRL vs 59% district-wide (31 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: 235 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 7,378 units permitted in Hidalgo County in 2024 (641 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hidalgo County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 93 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?